Tennis · ATP Beijing · 03/10, 05:00
Prediction: Alexander Zverev vs Juncheng Shang
Team pages: Alexander Zverev · Juncheng Shang
Prediction summary
Winner
Alexander Zverev
Juncheng Shang
Estimated games
26.1Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alexander Zverev
10-0 (W-L)
Juncheng Shang
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexander Zverev 1625 · Juncheng Shang 1448
| Alexander Zverev | Juncheng Shang | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 73% | 27% |
| Market | 83% | 17% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alexander Zverev (rating 1625 vs 1448).
- Alexander Zverev dominates on serve: 10.1 aces and 43.2% break avg.
- Alexander Zverev is in better form: 90% recent wins.
Statistics
| Alexander Zverev | Juncheng Shang | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 88% (8) | 30% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2.4-0.3 | 1-1.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 17.3-11.6 | 12.2-14.1 |
| Aces | 10.1 | 4 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 78.7% | 64.7% |
| Break % | 43.2% | 29.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.1 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +5.6
Over 20.5: 84% · 1.80
Under 20.5: 16% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexander Zverev
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Cameron Norrie ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 27/09 | Learner Tien Laver Cup · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 26/09 | Alex De Minaur Laver Cup · Hard |
1-2 | 21-20 | L |
| 20/09 | Dino Prizmic Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/09 | Matej Dodig Davis Cup |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 13/09 | Ben Shelton US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-18 | W |
| 11/09 | Karen Khachanov US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 20-15 | W |
| 10/09 | Botic Van De Zandschulp US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-8 | W |
| 08/09 | Luciano Darderi US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-10 | W |
| 06/09 | Alejandro Tabilo US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-10 | W |
Juncheng Shang
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Sebastian Baez ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 24/09 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 31/08 | Marco Trungelliti US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 25-20 | L |
| 14/08 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 06/08 | Luciano Darderi ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 04/08 | Andrey Rublev ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 02/08 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 27/07 | Kei Nishikori ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 24/02 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Dubai · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 16/02 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Doha · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexander Zverev vs Juncheng Shang?
Our model gives 79% to Alexander Zverev, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.