Tennis · ATP Beijing · 04/10, 08:40
Prediction: Alex De Minaur vs Andrey Rublev
Team pages: Alex De Minaur · Andrey Rublev
Prediction summary
Winner
Alex De Minaur
Andrey Rublev
Estimated games
25.3Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alex De Minaur
5-5 (W-L)
Andrey Rublev
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alex De Minaur
3–4
Andrey Rublev
(7 last)
- 20 Feb1-2 13-16L
- 16 Feb2-1 17-15W
- 21 Jan2-3 21-30L
- 03 Nov1-2 10-16L
- 15 Feb2-0 12-8W
- 13 Apr1-2 11-14L
- 05 Aug2-1 18-17W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alex De Minaur 1569 · Andrey Rublev 1571
| Alex De Minaur | Andrey Rublev | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 53% | 47% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Alex De Minaur 3–4 Andrey Rublev (7).
Statistics
| Alex De Minaur | Andrey Rublev | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 75% (8) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.8 | 1.6-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.8-12 | 15.4-13.4 |
| Aces | 5.9 | 10.7 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 71.6% | 79% |
| Break % | 38.6% | 30.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.3 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +1.8
Over 23.5: 63% · 1.83
Under 23.5: 37% · 1.83
H2H · Alex De Minaur 3 – 4 Andrey Rublev (7)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alex De Minaur 3–4 Andrey Rublev
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/02/25 ATP Doha | 1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 16/02/24 ATP Rotterdam | 2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 21/01/24 Australian Open | 2-3 | 21-30 | L |
| 03/11/23 ATP Paris | 1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 15/02/23 ATP Rotterdam | 2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 13/04/22 ATP Monte Carlo | 1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 05/08/18 ATP Washington | 2-1 | 18-17 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alex De Minaur
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Quentin Halys ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 01/10 | Mariano Navone ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 26/09 | Alexander Zverev Laver Cup · Hard |
2-1 | 20-21 | W |
| 20/09 | Kamil Majchrzak Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/09 | Maks Kasnikowski Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/09 | Botic Van De Zandschulp US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 11-19 | L |
| 02/09 | Andrea Guerrieri US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-8 | W |
| 19/08 | Arthur Fils ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 17/08 | Arthur Fery ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 15/08 | Quentin Halys ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
Andrey Rublev
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Roman Safiullin ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 01/10 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 29/09 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 28/09 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 27/09 | Hugo Gaston ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 25/09 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/09 | Daniel Merida Aguilar US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 17-24 | L |
| 31/08 | Otto Virtanen US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 31-22 | W |
| 18/08 | Nuno Borges ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/08 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alex De Minaur vs Andrey Rublev?
Our model gives 51% to Alex De Minaur, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.