Tennis · WTA Beijing · 04/10, 04:00
Prediction: Donna Vekic vs Iga Swiatek
Team pages: Donna Vekic · Iga Swiatek
Prediction summary
Winner
Donna Vekic
Iga Swiatek
Estimated games
22.1
Recent form · 10 last
Donna Vekic
8-2 (W-L)
Iga Swiatek
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Donna Vekic
0–4
Iga Swiatek
(4 last)
- 16 May0-2 7-12L
- 17 Oct1-2 9-15L
- 24 Feb0-2 9-13L
- 25 Jan0-2 8-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Donna Vekic 1457 · Iga Swiatek 1605
| Donna Vekic | Iga Swiatek | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 30% | 70% |
| Market | 14% | 86% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Iga Swiatek (rating 1457 vs 1605).
- Iga Swiatek is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Donna Vekic 0–4 Iga Swiatek (4).
- Note: Donna Vekic makes many double faults (5.3/match).
Statistics
| Donna Vekic | Iga Swiatek | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 29% (7) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.6 | 1.7-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-13.5 | 12.5-7.9 |
| Aces | 4.9 | 1.4 |
| Double faults | 5.3 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 67.4% | 70.4% |
| Break % | 30.2% | 58.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.1
H2H · Donna Vekic 0 – 4 Iga Swiatek (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Donna Vekic 0–4 Iga Swiatek
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/23 WTA Rome | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 17/10/22 WTA San Diego | 1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 24/02/20 WTA Doha | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 25/01/20 Australian Open Women | 0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Donna Vekic
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Lin Zhu WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 22/09 | Xinyu Wang WTA Singapore · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 03/09 | Ann Li US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 30/08 | Talia Gibson US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 25/08 | Diane Parry WTA Monterrey · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 16/08 | Xinyu Wang WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 04/08 | Viktorija Golubic WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 30/06 | Ashlyn Krueger Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 17/06 | Alexandra Eala WTA Berlin · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 14/06 | Emma Raducanu WTA Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
Iga Swiatek
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Xinyu Gao WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/09 | Qinwen Zheng US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 05/09 | Marie Bouzkova US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 03/09 | Nadia Podoroska US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/09 | Xiyu Wang US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/08 | Jessica Pegula WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 19/08 | Diane Parry WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/08 | Maria Sakkari WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-8 | W |
| 16/08 | Emiliana Arango WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 14/08 | Elena Rybakina WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Donna Vekic vs Iga Swiatek?
Our model gives 79% to Iga Swiatek, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.