Tennis · WTA Beijing · 04/10, 04:00
Prediction: Jelena Ostapenko vs Elise Mertens
Team pages: Jelena Ostapenko · Elise Mertens
Prediction summary
Winner
Jelena Ostapenko
Elise Mertens
Estimated games
21.1
Recent form · 10 last
Jelena Ostapenko
6-4 (W-L)
Elise Mertens
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Jelena Ostapenko
1–0
Elise Mertens
(1 last)
- 17 Oct2-1 16-10W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jelena Ostapenko 1507 · Elise Mertens 1518
| Jelena Ostapenko | Elise Mertens | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Jelena Ostapenko 1–0 Elise Mertens (1).
- Note: Jelena Ostapenko makes many double faults (8.8/match).
- Note: Elise Mertens makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Jelena Ostapenko | Elise Mertens | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (5) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1 | 1.5-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.6-9.5 | 12.4-10.8 |
| Aces | 5.6 | 4.6 |
| Double faults | 8.8 | 4.3 |
| 1st serve % | 70.2% | 69.5% |
| Break % | 54.9% | 41.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.1
H2H · Jelena Ostapenko 1 – 0 Elise Mertens (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jelena Ostapenko 1–0 Elise Mertens
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10/19 WTA Luxembourg | 2-1 | 16-10 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jelena Ostapenko
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Paula Badosa WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 24/09 | Taylah Preston WTA Seoul · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 22/09 | Anastasia Zakharova WTA Seoul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/09 | Tatjana Maria US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 15/08 | Magdalena Frech WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 03/07 | Aryna Sabalenka Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Antonia Ruzic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 29/06 | Harriet Dart Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 25/06 | Zeynep Sonmez WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 24/06 | Panna Udvardy WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
Elise Mertens
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Katie Volynets WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 25/09 | Maja Chwalinska WTA Singapore · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 06/09 | Naomi Osaka US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 03/09 | Maria Timofeeva US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 01/09 | Kaitlin Quevedo US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 30/08 | Diane Parry WTA Monterrey · Hard |
1-2 | 13-12 | L |
| 29/08 | Nikola Bartunkova WTA Monterrey · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 28/08 | Yulia Starodubtsewa WTA Monterrey · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 27/08 | Panna Udvardy WTA Monterrey · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 16/08 | Diane Parry WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jelena Ostapenko vs Elise Mertens?
Our model gives 56% to Elise Mertens, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.