Tennis · WTA Beijing · 04/10, 05:00
Prediction: Nikola Bartunkova vs Aryna Sabalenka
Team pages: Nikola Bartunkova · Aryna Sabalenka
Prediction summary
Winner
Nikola Bartunkova
Aryna Sabalenka
Estimated games
22.7
Recent form · 10 last
Nikola Bartunkova
5-5 (W-L)
Aryna Sabalenka
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Nikola Bartunkova
0–1
Aryna Sabalenka
(1 last)
- 19 Jun1-2 16-15L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nikola Bartunkova 1556 · Aryna Sabalenka 1604
| Nikola Bartunkova | Aryna Sabalenka | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 21% | 79% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aryna Sabalenka (rating 1556 vs 1604).
- Aryna Sabalenka dominates on serve: 6.1 aces and 47.4% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Nikola Bartunkova 0–1 Aryna Sabalenka (1).
- Note: Nikola Bartunkova makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Nikola Bartunkova | Aryna Sabalenka | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1 | 1.7-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.6-10.8 | 12.5-8.5 |
| Aces | 4.9 | 6.1 |
| Double faults | 4.3 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 73.2% | 72.5% |
| Break % | 49.4% | 47.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.7
H2H · Nikola Bartunkova 0 – 1 Aryna Sabalenka (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nikola Bartunkova 0–1 Aryna Sabalenka
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06/26 WTA Berlin | 1-2 | 16-15 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nikola Bartunkova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10 | Magdalena Frech WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 05/09 | Mirra Andreeva US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 03/09 | Tatjana Maria US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 02/09 | Mayar Sherif US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 29/08 | Elise Mertens WTA Monterrey · Hard |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 28/08 | Darja Vidmanova WTA Monterrey · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 26/08 | En Shuo Liang WTA Monterrey · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 24/08 | Antonia Ruzic WTA Monterrey · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 15/08 | Sorana Cirstea WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 14/08 | Alina Charaeva WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
Aryna Sabalenka
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10 | Renata Zarazua WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 12/09 | Elena Rybakina US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 11/09 | Jessica Pegula US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 08/09 | Linda Noskova US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 17-18 | W |
| 06/09 | Taylor Townsend US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/09 | Kamilla Rakhimova US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 03/09 | Polina Iatcenko US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 31/08 | Maria Camila Osorio US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/08 | Sara Bejlek WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 19/08 | Xinyu Wang WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nikola Bartunkova vs Aryna Sabalenka?
Our model gives 69% to Aryna Sabalenka, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.