Tennis · WTA Beijing · 04/10, 05:00
Prediction: Sara Bejlek vs Naomi Osaka
Team pages: Sara Bejlek · Naomi Osaka
Prediction summary
Winner
Sara Bejlek
Naomi Osaka
Estimated games
21.9
Recent form · 10 last
Sara Bejlek
5-5 (W-L)
Naomi Osaka
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sara Bejlek 1552 · Naomi Osaka 1563
| Sara Bejlek | Naomi Osaka | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 27% | 73% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Naomi Osaka dominates on serve: 6.7 aces and 42.7% break avg.
Statistics
| Sara Bejlek | Naomi Osaka | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.8 | 1.5-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.6-10.3 | 12.5-10.6 |
| Aces | 1.6 | 6.7 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 3.4 |
| 1st serve % | 64.8% | 73.6% |
| Break % | 55.3% | 42.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sara Bejlek
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10 | Maddison Inglis WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 17/09 | Cristina Bucsa WTA Guadalajara · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 15/09 | Alycia Parks WTA Guadalajara · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 31/08 | Cristina Bucsa US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 23/08 | Coco Gauff WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 21/08 | Madison Keys WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 20/08 | Aryna Sabalenka WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 18/08 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 16/08 | Barbora Krejcikova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 14/08 | Karolina Pliskova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Naomi Osaka
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10 | Maria Timofeeva WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 07/09 | Elena Rybakina US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 06/09 | Elise Mertens US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 03/09 | Katerina Siniakova US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 17-10 | W |
| 01/09 | Anastasia Zakharova US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 12/08 | Elena Rybakina WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 10/08 | Leylah Annie Fernandez WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 08/08 | Elise Mertens WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 05/08 | Panna Udvardy WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/08 | Alexandra Eala WTA Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sara Bejlek vs Naomi Osaka?
Our model gives 63% to Naomi Osaka, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.