Tennis · WTA Beijing · 04/10, 05:00
Prediction: Karolina Muchova vs Ludmilla Samsonova
Team pages: Karolina Muchova · Ludmilla Samsonova
Prediction summary
Winner
Karolina Muchova
Ludmilla Samsonova
Estimated games
23.2
Recent form · 10 last
Karolina Muchova
8-2 (W-L)
Ludmilla Samsonova
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Karolina Muchova
2–0
Ludmilla Samsonova
(2 last)
- 11 Feb2-1 15-8W
- 10 Jan2-0 12-4W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Karolina Muchova 1572 · Ludmilla Samsonova 1544
| Karolina Muchova | Ludmilla Samsonova | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 74% | 26% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Karolina Muchova 2–0 Ludmilla Samsonova (2).
- Note: Ludmilla Samsonova makes many double faults (6/match).
Statistics
| Karolina Muchova | Ludmilla Samsonova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 83% (6) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.6 | 1.5-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.7-9.4 | 14.2-14 |
| Aces | 4.6 | 2.6 |
| Double faults | 1.3 | 6 |
| 1st serve % | 74.9% | 65.9% |
| Break % | 53.6% | 52.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.2
H2H · Karolina Muchova 2 – 0 Ludmilla Samsonova (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Karolina Muchova 2–0 Ludmilla Samsonova
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/02/19 WTA Doha | 2-1 | 15-8 | W |
| 10/01/19 Australian Open Women | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Karolina Muchova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10 | Katie Boulter WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 27/09 | Anhelina Kalinina Billie Jean King Cup · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 25/09 | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Billie Jean King Cup · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 04/09 | Emma Navarro US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 02/09 | Katie Boulter US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 31/08 | Sinja Kraus US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 11/07 | Linda Noskova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 09/07 | Coco Gauff Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 07/07 | Naomi Osaka Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 05/07 | Barbora Krejcikova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
Ludmilla Samsonova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10 | Linda Fruhvirtova WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 19/09 | Peyton Stearns WTA Guadalajara · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 18/09 | Marta Kostyuk WTA Guadalajara · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 17/09 | Kayla Day WTA Guadalajara · Hard |
2-1 | 16-18 | W |
| 15/09 | Elsa Jacquemot WTA Guadalajara · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 31/08 | Maya Joint US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 17/08 | Coco Gauff WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 14/08 | Yulia Putintseva WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 19-18 | W |
| 09/08 | Elena Rybakina WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 07/08 | Maya Joint WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Karolina Muchova vs Ludmilla Samsonova?
Our model gives 65% to Karolina Muchova, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.