Tennis · ATP Beijing · 02/10, 13:00
Prediction: Hubert Hurkacz vs Arthur Gea
Team pages: Hubert Hurkacz · Arthur Gea
Prediction summary
Winner
Hubert Hurkacz
Arthur Gea
Estimated games
26.3Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Hubert Hurkacz
4-6 (W-L)
Arthur Gea
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hubert Hurkacz 1612 · Arthur Gea 1588
| Hubert Hurkacz | Arthur Gea | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 47% |
| Market | 55% | 45% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Hubert Hurkacz dominates on serve: 13.2 aces and 44.4% break avg.
- Arthur Gea dominates on serve: 7.1 aces and 54.6% break avg.
- Note: Arthur Gea makes many double faults (5.2/match).
Statistics
| Hubert Hurkacz | Arthur Gea | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-1 | 2.1-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.8-12.5 | 17.2-13.8 |
| Aces | 13.2 | 7.1 |
| Double faults | 3 | 5.2 |
| 1st serve % | 78.4% | 73.7% |
| Break % | 44.4% | 54.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.3 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +3.8
Over 22.5: 75% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 25% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hubert Hurkacz
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Learner Tien ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 29/09 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 28/09 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 27/09 | Lloyd Harris ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 26/09 | Martin Damm ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 24/09 | Alexander Shevchenko ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 02/09 | Ben Shelton US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 21-25 | L |
| 31/08 | Damir Dzumhur US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 22-12 | W |
| 24/08 | Sebastian Baez Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 23/08 | Moez Echargui Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Arthur Gea
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09 | Zhizhen Zhang ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/09 | Tomas Machac ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 28/09 | Rigele Te ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/09 | Botic Van De Zandschulp US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 29-29 | L |
| 05/09 | Michael Zheng US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 26-23 | W |
| 04/09 | Zachary Svajda US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 23-14 | W |
| 01/09 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 23-19 | W |
| 28/08 | Nishesh Basavareddy US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Clement Chidekh US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 25/08 | Sumit Nagal US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hubert Hurkacz vs Arthur Gea?
Our model gives 54% to Hubert Hurkacz, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.