Tennis · ATP Beijing · 03/10, 05:00
Prediction: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin
Team pages: Andrey Rublev · Roman Safiullin
Prediction summary
Winner
Andrey Rublev
Roman Safiullin
Estimated games
26.5Bet365 line 24.5
Recent form · 10 last
Andrey Rublev
5-5 (W-L)
Roman Safiullin
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Andrey Rublev
0–1
Roman Safiullin
(1 last)
- 29 Jun2-3 26-28L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Andrey Rublev 1536 · Roman Safiullin 1534
| Andrey Rublev | Roman Safiullin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 55% | 45% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Roman Safiullin dominates on serve: 6.5 aces and 46.3% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Andrey Rublev 0–1 Roman Safiullin (1).
Statistics
| Andrey Rublev | Roman Safiullin | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.3 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.6-14 | 12-10.1 |
| Aces | 10.7 | 6.5 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 2.2 |
| 1st serve % | 78.2% | 75.7% |
| Break % | 31% | 46.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.5 · Bet365 line 24.5 · +2
Over 24.5: 63% · 1.83
Under 24.5: 37% · 1.83
H2H · Andrey Rublev 0 – 1 Roman Safiullin (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Andrey Rublev 0–1 Roman Safiullin
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06/26 Wimbledon | 2-3 | 26-28 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Andrey Rublev
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 29/09 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 28/09 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 27/09 | Hugo Gaston ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 25/09 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/09 | Daniel Merida Aguilar US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 17-24 | L |
| 31/08 | Otto Virtanen US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 31-22 | W |
| 18/08 | Nuno Borges ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/08 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 04/08 | Juncheng Shang ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
Roman Safiullin
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/09 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 27/09 | Bu Yunchaokete ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/09 | Quentin Halys ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 24/09 | Fajing Sun ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 31/08 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 12-18 | L |
| 25/08 | Hugo Grenier ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 21/08 | Hubert Hurkacz Challenger Cancun · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 21/08 | Stan Wawrinka Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 18/08 | Sebastian Ofner Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin?
Our model gives 53% to Andrey Rublev, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.