Tennis · ATP Beijing · 03/10, 05:00
Prediction: Alex De Minaur vs Quentin Halys
Team pages: Alex De Minaur · Quentin Halys
Prediction summary
Winner
Alex De Minaur
Quentin Halys
Estimated games
25.5Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alex De Minaur
6-4 (W-L)
Quentin Halys
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alex De Minaur
1–2
Quentin Halys
(3 last)
- 15 Aug2-1 14-15W
- 25 Mar1-2 19-20L
- 20 May1-2 15-19L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alex De Minaur 1560 · Quentin Halys 1511
| Alex De Minaur | Quentin Halys | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 74% | 26% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alex De Minaur (rating 1560 vs 1511).
- Quentin Halys dominates on serve: 13.2 aces and 53.2% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Alex De Minaur 1–2 Quentin Halys (3).
- Note: Quentin Halys makes many double faults (4.5/match).
Statistics
| Alex De Minaur | Quentin Halys | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 63% (8) | 56% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.9 | 1.7-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.5-12.1 | 16.6-15 |
| Aces | 5.2 | 13.2 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 4.5 |
| 1st serve % | 71.6% | 81.7% |
| Break % | 38.1% | 53.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.5 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +3
Over 22.5: 70% · 2.00
Under 22.5: 30% · 1.72
H2H · Alex De Minaur 1 – 2 Quentin Halys (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alex De Minaur 1–2 Quentin Halys
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/26 ATP Cincinnati | 2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 25/03/23 ATP Miami | 1-2 | 19-20 | L |
| 20/05/17 ATP Lyon Qual | 1-2 | 15-19 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alex De Minaur
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Mariano Navone ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 26/09 | Alexander Zverev Laver Cup · Hard |
2-1 | 20-21 | W |
| 20/09 | Kamil Majchrzak Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/09 | Maks Kasnikowski Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/09 | Botic Van De Zandschulp US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 11-19 | L |
| 02/09 | Andrea Guerrieri US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-8 | W |
| 19/08 | Arthur Fils ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 17/08 | Arthur Fery ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 15/08 | Quentin Halys ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 06/08 | Cameron Norrie ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
Quentin Halys
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Ignacio Buse ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 26/09 | Roman Safiullin ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 19/09 | Felix Auger Aliassime Davis Cup |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 04/09 | Alexander Zverev US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 26-29 | L |
| 01/09 | Facundo Diaz Acosta US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 25-17 | W |
| 25/08 | Benjamin Bonzi ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 15/08 | Alex De Minaur ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 14/08 | Vit Kopriva ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 13/08 | Bu Yunchaokete ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 11/08 | Soonwoo Kwon ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alex De Minaur vs Quentin Halys?
Our model gives 67% to Alex De Minaur, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.