Tennis · WTA Beijing · 03/10, 05:00
Prediction: Jelena Ostapenko vs Paula Badosa
Team pages: Jelena Ostapenko · Paula Badosa
Prediction summary
Winner
Jelena Ostapenko
Paula Badosa
Estimated games
20.9
Recent form · 10 last
Jelena Ostapenko
6-4 (W-L)
Paula Badosa
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Jelena Ostapenko
3–2
Paula Badosa
(5 last)
- 08 Aug2-1 16-14W
- 17 May2-1 16-11W
- 10 Jan0-2 7-13L
- 15 Mar2-0 12-4W
- 03 Oct0-2 7-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jelena Ostapenko 1496 · Paula Badosa 1554
| Jelena Ostapenko | Paula Badosa | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 40% | 60% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Paula Badosa (rating 1496 vs 1554).
- Head-to-head: Jelena Ostapenko 3–2 Paula Badosa (5).
- Note: Jelena Ostapenko makes many double faults (8.3/match).
- Note: Paula Badosa makes many double faults (7/match).
Statistics
| Jelena Ostapenko | Paula Badosa | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 25% (4) | 71% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1 | 1.5-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.4-8.8 | 12.8-10 |
| Aces | 5.3 | 2.4 |
| Double faults | 8.3 | 7 |
| 1st serve % | 72.6% | 68% |
| Break % | 51.6% | 50% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.9
H2H · Jelena Ostapenko 3 – 2 Paula Badosa (5)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jelena Ostapenko 3–2 Paula Badosa
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/24 WTA Toronto | 2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 17/05/23 WTA Rome | 2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 10/01/22 WTA Sydney | 0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 15/03/21 WTA St. Petersburg | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 03/10/20 French Open Women | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jelena Ostapenko
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09 | Taylah Preston WTA Seoul · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 22/09 | Anastasia Zakharova WTA Seoul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/09 | Tatjana Maria US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 15/08 | Magdalena Frech WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 03/07 | Aryna Sabalenka Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Antonia Ruzic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 29/06 | Harriet Dart Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 25/06 | Zeynep Sonmez WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 24/06 | Panna Udvardy WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 22/06 | Francesca Jones WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Paula Badosa
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Daria Kasatkina WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 19/09 | Nadia Podoroska WTA Sao Paulo · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 18/09 | Mary Stoiana WTA Sao Paulo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/09 | Jazmin Ortenzi WTA Sao Paulo · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 17/09 | Justina Mikulskyte WTA Sao Paulo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/09 | Coco Gauff US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 02/09 | Daria Kasatkina US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/07 | Mayar Sherif WTA Hamburg · Clay |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 23/07 | Panna Udvardy WTA Hamburg · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/07 | Katarzyna Kawa WTA Hamburg · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jelena Ostapenko vs Paula Badosa?
Our model gives 59% to Paula Badosa, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.