Tennis · WTA Beijing · 03/10, 04:00
Prediction: Elena Rybakina vs Alina Charaeva
Team pages: Elena Rybakina · Alina Charaeva
Prediction summary
Winner
Elena Rybakina
Alina Charaeva
Estimated games
23.3
Recent form · 10 last
Elena Rybakina
8-2 (W-L)
Alina Charaeva
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Elena Rybakina 1695 · Alina Charaeva 1508
| Elena Rybakina | Alina Charaeva | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 75% | 25% |
| Market | 91% | 9% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Elena Rybakina (rating 1695 vs 1508).
- Elena Rybakina dominates on serve: 7.2 aces and 46% break avg.
- Elena Rybakina is in better form: 100% recent wins.
- Note: Alina Charaeva makes many double faults (6.6/match).
Statistics
| Elena Rybakina | Alina Charaeva | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 100% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 100% (10) | 56% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2-0.3 | 1.2-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.3-8.8 | 12.8-12.9 |
| Aces | 7.2 | 3.1 |
| Double faults | 3 | 6.6 |
| 1st serve % | 80.1% | 61.1% |
| Break % | 46% | 42.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Elena Rybakina
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Aryna Sabalenka US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 11/09 | Coco Gauff US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 09/09 | Qinwen Zheng US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 07/09 | Naomi Osaka US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/09 | Yulia Starodubtsewa US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 04/09 | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/09 | Thea Frodin US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/08 | Diana Shnaider WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 17/08 | Magdalena Frech WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 16/08 | Taylor Townsend WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Alina Charaeva
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Yulia Starodubtsewa WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 24/09 | Anna Bondar WTA Seoul · Hard |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 22/09 | Sofia Kenin WTA Seoul · Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 18/09 | Anna Blinkova WTA Sao Paulo · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 17/09 | Elina Avanesyan WTA Sao Paulo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/09 | Xiaodi You WTA Sao Paulo · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 25/08 | Susan Bandecchi US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 14/08 | Nikola Bartunkova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 12/08 | Rebecca Marino WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 24/07 | Anna Bondar WTA Hamburg · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Elena Rybakina vs Alina Charaeva?
Our model gives 84% to Elena Rybakina, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.