Tennis · WTA Beijing · 03/10, 04:00
Prediction: Katie Volynets vs Elise Mertens
Team pages: Katie Volynets · Elise Mertens
Prediction summary
Winner
Katie Volynets
Elise Mertens
Estimated games
21.2
Recent form · 10 last
Katie Volynets
9-1 (W-L)
Elise Mertens
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Katie Volynets
0–1
Elise Mertens
(1 last)
- 07 Aug0-2 4-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Katie Volynets 1579 · Elise Mertens 1514
| Katie Volynets | Elise Mertens | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 47% | 53% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Katie Volynets (rating 1579 vs 1514).
- Katie Volynets is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Katie Volynets 0–1 Elise Mertens (1).
- Note: Elise Mertens makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Katie Volynets | Elise Mertens | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.4 | 1.3-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-7.1 | 11-10.9 |
| Aces | 0.5 | 4.2 |
| Double faults | 0.5 | 4.3 |
| 1st serve % | 60.3% | 68% |
| Break % | 51.3% | 37.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.2
H2H · Katie Volynets 0 – 1 Elise Mertens (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Katie Volynets 0–1 Elise Mertens
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/24 WTA Toronto | 0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Katie Volynets
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Robin Montgomery WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 26/09 | Kimberly Birrell WTA Seoul · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 23/09 | Kamilla Rakhimova WTA Seoul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 21/09 | Elvina Kalieva WTA Seoul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 31/08 | Linda Noskova US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 29/08 | Tereza Valentova WTA Philadelphia · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 29/08 | Oksana Selekhmeteva WTA Philadelphia · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 28/08 | Mananchaya Sawangkaew WTA Philadelphia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 25/08 | Mia Pohankova WTA Philadelphia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 23/08 | Hong Yi Cody Wong WTA Philadelphia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Elise Mertens
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09 | Maja Chwalinska WTA Singapore · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 06/09 | Naomi Osaka US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 03/09 | Maria Timofeeva US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 01/09 | Kaitlin Quevedo US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 30/08 | Diane Parry WTA Monterrey · Hard |
1-2 | 13-12 | L |
| 29/08 | Nikola Bartunkova WTA Monterrey · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 28/08 | Yulia Starodubtsewa WTA Monterrey · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 27/08 | Panna Udvardy WTA Monterrey · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 16/08 | Diane Parry WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 08/08 | Naomi Osaka WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Katie Volynets vs Elise Mertens?
Our model gives 53% to Katie Volynets, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.