Tennis · ATP Beijing · 02/10, 04:00
Prediction: Alex Molcan vs Karen Khachanov
Team pages: Alex Molcan · Karen Khachanov
Prediction summary
Winner
Alex Molcan
Karen Khachanov
Estimated games
25.2Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alex Molcan
7-3 (W-L)
Karen Khachanov
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alex Molcan
1–0
Karen Khachanov
(1 last)
- 18 May2-0 13-8W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alex Molcan 1533 · Karen Khachanov 1525
| Alex Molcan | Karen Khachanov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 21% | 79% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Karen Khachanov dominates on serve: 8.4 aces and 47.4% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Alex Molcan 1–0 Karen Khachanov (1).
Statistics
| Alex Molcan | Karen Khachanov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 75% (4) | 56% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.1 | 1.7-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-11.5 | 17.1-14.4 |
| Aces | 4 | 8.4 |
| Double faults | 1.5 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 69.5% | 77.8% |
| Break % | 38.8% | 47.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.2 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +3.7
Over 21.5: 74% · 1.90
Under 21.5: 26% · 1.80
H2H · Alex Molcan 1 – 0 Karen Khachanov (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alex Molcan 1–0 Karen Khachanov
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/05/22 ATP Lyon | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alex Molcan
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Tomas Machac ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/09 | Marco Trungelliti ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 28/09 | Vit Kopriva ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 16-18 | W |
| 20/09 | Stefanos Tsitsipas Davis Cup |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 19/09 | Stefanos Sakellaridis Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 08/09 | Joao Lucas Reis da Silva Challenger Tulln · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 02/09 | Benjamin Bonzi US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 15-21 | L |
| 23/07 | Alexander Bublik ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 22/07 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 21/07 | Sebastian Ofner ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Karen Khachanov
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09 | Felix Auger Aliassime ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/09 | Alexander Zverev US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 15-20 | L |
| 07/09 | Learner Tien US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 29-23 | W |
| 05/09 | Benjamin Bonzi US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-9 | W |
| 03/09 | Felix Auger Aliassime US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-14 | W |
| 31/08 | Roman Andres Burruchaga US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-4 | W |
| 15/08 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 06/08 | Terence Atmane ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 30/07 | Bernard Tomic ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 04/07 | Flavio Cobolli Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 23-25 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alex Molcan vs Karen Khachanov?
Our model gives 65% to Karen Khachanov, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.