Tennis · WTA Beijing · 02/10, 05:00
Prediction: Renata Zarazua vs Aryna Sabalenka
Team pages: Renata Zarazua · Aryna Sabalenka
Prediction summary
Winner
Renata Zarazua
Aryna Sabalenka
Estimated games
21.8
Recent form · 10 last
Renata Zarazua
6-4 (W-L)
Aryna Sabalenka
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Renata Zarazua
0–1
Aryna Sabalenka
(1 last)
- 31 Dec0-2 4-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Renata Zarazua 1448 · Aryna Sabalenka 1595
| Renata Zarazua | Aryna Sabalenka | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 30% | 70% |
| Market | 6% | 94% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aryna Sabalenka (rating 1448 vs 1595).
- Aryna Sabalenka dominates on serve: 6.3 aces and 48.1% break avg.
- Aryna Sabalenka is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Renata Zarazua 0–1 Aryna Sabalenka (1).
Statistics
| Renata Zarazua | Aryna Sabalenka | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 30% (10) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.5 | 1.7-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 10-12.1 | 12.6-8.9 |
| Aces | 0.4 | 6.3 |
| Double faults | 2.2 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 60.1% | 70.8% |
| Break % | 50.5% | 48.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
H2H · Renata Zarazua 0 – 1 Aryna Sabalenka (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Renata Zarazua 0–1 Aryna Sabalenka
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/12/24 WTA Brisbane | 0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Renata Zarazua
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09 | Anna Bondar WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 22/09 | Anna Bondar WTA Seoul · Hard |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 14/09 | Caroline Dolehide WTA Guadalajara · Hard |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 30/08 | Polina Iatcenko US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 25/08 | Clara Tauson WTA Monterrey · Hard |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 11/08 | Yue Yuan WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 06/08 | Leylah Annie Fernandez WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Tamara Korpatsch WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 12-11 | W |
| 01/08 | Darja Vidmanova WTA Memphis · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 01/08 | Anastasia Zakharova WTA Memphis · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Aryna Sabalenka
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Elena Rybakina US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 11/09 | Jessica Pegula US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 08/09 | Linda Noskova US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 17-18 | W |
| 06/09 | Taylor Townsend US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/09 | Kamilla Rakhimova US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 03/09 | Polina Iatcenko US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 31/08 | Maria Camila Osorio US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/08 | Sara Bejlek WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 19/08 | Xinyu Wang WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 16/08 | Talia Gibson WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Renata Zarazua vs Aryna Sabalenka?
Our model gives 83% to Aryna Sabalenka, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.