Tennis · ATP Beijing · 02/10, 13:00
Prediction: Bu Yunchaokete vs Novak Djokovic
Team pages: Bu Yunchaokete · Novak Djokovic
Prediction summary
Winner
Bu Yunchaokete
Novak Djokovic
Estimated games
28.2Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Bu Yunchaokete
6-4 (W-L)
Novak Djokovic
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bu Yunchaokete 1526 · Novak Djokovic 1529
| Bu Yunchaokete | Novak Djokovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 30% | 70% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Bu Yunchaokete dominates on serve: 7.8 aces and 41.9% break avg.
Statistics
| Bu Yunchaokete | Novak Djokovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.2 | 2.2-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.3-11.9 | 19.9-19.2 |
| Aces | 7.8 | 10.5 |
| Double faults | 3.6 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 76.9% | 75.3% |
| Break % | 41.9% | 38.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
28.2 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +6.7
Over 21.5: 88% · 1.80
Under 21.5: 12% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bu Yunchaokete
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 27/09 | Roman Safiullin ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/09 | Kamil Majchrzak ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 24/09 | Michael Zheng ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/09 | Michael Zheng US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 14-20 | L |
| 02/09 | Rafael Jodar US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-4 | W |
| 28/08 | Federico Cina US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 26/08 | Borna Gojo US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 25/08 | Rio Noguchi US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 18/08 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Novak Djokovic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09 | Nuno Borges ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 31/08 | Mariano Navone US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 22-28 | L |
| 15/08 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 10/07 | Jannik Sinner Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 12-18 | L |
| 07/07 | Felix Auger Aliassime Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 29-28 | W |
| 05/07 | Roman Safiullin Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 22-18 | W |
| 03/07 | Arthur Rinderknech Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 21-21 | W |
| 01/07 | Stefanos Tsitsipas Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-9 | W |
| 29/06 | Yibing Wu Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-19 | W |
| 29/05 | Joao Fonseca French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 25-28 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bu Yunchaokete vs Novak Djokovic?
Our model gives 61% to Novak Djokovic, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.