Tennis · WTA Beijing · 02/10, 05:00
Prediction: Karolina Muchova vs Katie Boulter
Team pages: Karolina Muchova · Katie Boulter
Prediction summary
Winner
Karolina Muchova
Katie Boulter
Estimated games
21.7
Recent form · 10 last
Karolina Muchova
8-2 (W-L)
Katie Boulter
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Karolina Muchova
2–0
Katie Boulter
(2 last)
- 02 Sept2-0 12-1W
- 21 Mar2-0 13-8W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Karolina Muchova 1577 · Katie Boulter 1466
| Karolina Muchova | Katie Boulter | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 35% |
| Market | 85% | 15% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Karolina Muchova (rating 1577 vs 1466).
- Karolina Muchova is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Karolina Muchova 2–0 Katie Boulter (2).
- Note: Katie Boulter makes many double faults (7.7/match).
Statistics
| Karolina Muchova | Katie Boulter | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (5) | 43% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.6 | 0.8-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.7-9.5 | 9.5-12.8 |
| Aces | 4.3 | 2.2 |
| Double faults | 1 | 7.7 |
| 1st serve % | 73.7% | 63.7% |
| Break % | 50.4% | 31.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.7
H2H · Karolina Muchova 2 – 0 Katie Boulter (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Karolina Muchova 2–0 Katie Boulter
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09/26 US Open Women | 2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 21/03/26 WTA Miami | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Karolina Muchova
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Anhelina Kalinina Billie Jean King Cup · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 25/09 | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Billie Jean King Cup · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 04/09 | Emma Navarro US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 02/09 | Katie Boulter US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 31/08 | Sinja Kraus US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 11/07 | Linda Noskova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 09/07 | Coco Gauff Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 07/07 | Naomi Osaka Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 05/07 | Barbora Krejcikova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 03/07 | Mananchaya Sawangkaew Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Katie Boulter
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09 | Mai Hontama WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 22/09 | Linda Noskova Billie Jean King Cup · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 02/09 | Karolina Muchova US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 30/08 | Carol Young Suh Lee US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 15/08 | Linda Noskova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/08 | Katie Volynets WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 13-15 | W |
| 03/08 | Kayla Cross WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 28/07 | Ashlyn Krueger WTA Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 30/06 | Tyra Caterina Grant Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 21/06 | Leylah Annie Fernandez WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Karolina Muchova vs Katie Boulter?
Our model gives 76% to Karolina Muchova, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.