Tennis · WTA Beijing · 02/10, 05:00
Prediction: Maria Timofeeva vs Naomi Osaka
Team pages: Maria Timofeeva · Naomi Osaka
Prediction summary
Winner
Maria Timofeeva
Naomi Osaka
Estimated games
21.6
Recent form · 10 last
Maria Timofeeva
8-2 (W-L)
Naomi Osaka
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Maria Timofeeva 1643 · Naomi Osaka 1568
| Maria Timofeeva | Naomi Osaka | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 39% |
| Market | 22% | 78% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Maria Timofeeva (rating 1643 vs 1568).
- Naomi Osaka dominates on serve: 7.4 aces and 41.9% break avg.
Statistics
| Maria Timofeeva | Naomi Osaka | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 90% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.4 | 1.5-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.8-7.8 | 12.6-10.7 |
| Aces | 2.5 | 7.4 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 68.5% | 73.7% |
| Break % | 63% | 41.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Maria Timofeeva
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09 | Darja Vidmanova WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 27/09 | Reese Brantmeier WTA Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 26/09 | Mia Pohankova WTA Porto · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 25/09 | Gabriela Knutson WTA Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 23/09 | Kajsa Rinaldo Persson WTA Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 22/09 | Sofia Johnson WTA Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 03/09 | Elise Mertens US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 31/08 | Tamara Zidansek US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 25/08 | Shuai Zhang WTA Monterrey · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 23/08 | Kamilla Rakhimova WTA Monterrey · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
Naomi Osaka
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09 | Elena Rybakina US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 06/09 | Elise Mertens US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 03/09 | Katerina Siniakova US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 17-10 | W |
| 01/09 | Anastasia Zakharova US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 12/08 | Elena Rybakina WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 10/08 | Leylah Annie Fernandez WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 08/08 | Elise Mertens WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 05/08 | Panna Udvardy WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/08 | Alexandra Eala WTA Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 31/07 | Elisabetta Cocciaretto WTA Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Maria Timofeeva vs Naomi Osaka?
Our model gives 61% to Naomi Osaka, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.