Tennis · WTA Beijing · 30/09, 09:30
Prediction: Mai Hontama vs Katie Boulter
Team pages: Mai Hontama · Katie Boulter
Prediction summary
Winner
Mai Hontama
Katie Boulter
Estimated games
22
Recent form · 10 last
Mai Hontama
6-4 (W-L)
Katie Boulter
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Mai Hontama
0–1
Katie Boulter
(1 last)
- 05 May0-2 10-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mai Hontama 1535 · Katie Boulter 1451
| Mai Hontama | Katie Boulter | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 38% |
| Market | 36% | 64% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mai Hontama (rating 1535 vs 1451).
- Mai Hontama is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Mai Hontama 0–1 Katie Boulter (1).
- Note: Katie Boulter makes many double faults (7.8/match).
Statistics
| Mai Hontama | Katie Boulter | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 20% |
| Win % · Hard | 57% (7) | 33% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.1 | 0.6-1.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 12-11.3 | 8.7-13.3 |
| Aces | 0.7 | 1.9 |
| Double faults | 3.7 | 7.8 |
| 1st serve % | 52.7% | 64.4% |
| Break % | 47.1% | 25.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22
H2H · Mai Hontama 0 – 1 Katie Boulter (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mai Hontama 0–1 Katie Boulter
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/05/23 ITF W80 Gifu | 0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mai Hontama
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09 | Jodie Anna Burrage WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 14-9 | W |
| 28/09 | Alexandra Panova WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 19/09 | Eunhye Lee WTA Seoul · Hard |
1-2 | 10-17 | L |
| 26/08 | Andrea Lazaro Garcia US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 24/08 | Lina Gjorcheska US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 08/08 | Katrina Scott W100 Landisville |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 07/08 | Yeon Woo Ku W100 Landisville |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 04/08 | Erika Andreeva W100 Landisville |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 31/07 | Maddison Inglis WTA Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 30/07 | Himeno Sakatsume WTA Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Katie Boulter
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09 | Linda Noskova Billie Jean King Cup · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 02/09 | Karolina Muchova US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 30/08 | Carol Young Suh Lee US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 15/08 | Linda Noskova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/08 | Katie Volynets WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 13-15 | W |
| 03/08 | Kayla Cross WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 28/07 | Ashlyn Krueger WTA Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 30/06 | Tyra Caterina Grant Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 21/06 | Leylah Annie Fernandez WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 13/06 | Donna Vekic WTA Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mai Hontama vs Katie Boulter?
Our model gives 52% to Katie Boulter, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.