Tennis · ATP Beijing · 30/09, 05:00
Prediction: Zhizhen Zhang vs Arthur Gea
Team pages: Zhizhen Zhang · Arthur Gea
Prediction summary
Winner
Zhizhen Zhang
Arthur Gea
Estimated games
26Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Zhizhen Zhang
4-6 (W-L)
Arthur Gea
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Zhizhen Zhang 1460 · Arthur Gea 1598
| Zhizhen Zhang | Arthur Gea | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 69% |
| Market | 27% | 73% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arthur Gea (rating 1460 vs 1598).
- Arthur Gea dominates on serve: 6.6 aces and 50.4% break avg.
- Arthur Gea is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Arthur Gea makes many double faults (5.2/match).
Statistics
| Zhizhen Zhang | Arthur Gea | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 20% (5) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.4 | 2.1-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13-13.4 | 17.2-13.8 |
| Aces | 9.3 | 6.6 |
| Double faults | 1.8 | 5.2 |
| 1st serve % | 74% | 73.8% |
| Break % | 34.5% | 50.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +4.5
Over 21.5: 79% · 1.80
Under 21.5: 21% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Zhizhen Zhang
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09 | Coleman Wong ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Jeffrey John Wolf Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 22/07 | Charles Broom Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 21/07 | Tyler Zink Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/07 | Justin Boulais Challenger Granby · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 22/06 | Henry Searle Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 19/06 | Otto Virtanen Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 18/06 | Roman Safiullin Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 16/06 | Jaime Faria Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 15/06 | Darwin Blanch Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
Arthur Gea
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09 | Tomas Machac ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 28/09 | Rigele Te ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/09 | Botic Van De Zandschulp US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 29-29 | L |
| 05/09 | Michael Zheng US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 26-23 | W |
| 04/09 | Zachary Svajda US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 23-14 | W |
| 01/09 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 23-19 | W |
| 28/08 | Nishesh Basavareddy US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Clement Chidekh US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 25/08 | Sumit Nagal US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 02/08 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Zhizhen Zhang vs Arthur Gea?
Our model gives 71% to Arthur Gea, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.