Tennis · ATP Beijing · 30/09, 05:00
Prediction: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno Busta
Team pages: Daniil Medvedev · Pablo Carreno Busta
Prediction summary
Winner
Daniil Medvedev
Pablo Carreno Busta
Estimated games
23.6Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Daniil Medvedev
8-2 (W-L)
Pablo Carreno Busta
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Daniil Medvedev
5–2
Pablo Carreno Busta
(7 last)
- 28 Nov2-0 13-8W
- 20 Aug2-0 12-2W
- 29 Jul0-2 8-13L
- 25 Jun2-1 15-11W
- 30 Oct2-0 12-4W
- 12 Mar0-2 6-13L
- 19 Oct2-0 12-6W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daniil Medvedev 1596 · Pablo Carreno Busta 1508
| Daniil Medvedev | Pablo Carreno Busta | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 38% |
| Market | 74% | 26% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Daniil Medvedev (rating 1596 vs 1508).
- Head-to-head: Daniil Medvedev 5–2 Pablo Carreno Busta (7).
- Note: Daniil Medvedev makes many double faults (5.1/match).
Statistics
| Daniil Medvedev | Pablo Carreno Busta | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.8 | 1.4-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 15-12.3 | 12.3-11.3 |
| Aces | 12 | 2.8 |
| Double faults | 5.1 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 80.4% | 70.1% |
| Break % | 39.6% | 49% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.6 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +2.1
Over 21.5: 65% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 35% · 1.83
H2H · Daniil Medvedev 5 – 2 Pablo Carreno Busta (7)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Daniil Medvedev 5–2 Pablo Carreno Busta
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/11/21 Davis Cup | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 20/08/21 ATP Cincinnati | 2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 29/07/21 Olympics 2020 - Men | 0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 25/06/21 ATP Mallorca | 2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 30/10/18 ATP Paris | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 12/03/18 ATP Indian Wells | 0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 19/10/17 ATP Moscow | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daniil Medvedev
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09 | Roman Safiullin ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 27/09 | Coleman Wong ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 26/09 | Valentin Royer ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 06/09 | Frances Tiafoe US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 16-20 | L |
| 04/09 | Arthur Rinderknech US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-12 | W |
| 02/09 | Sebastian Gorzny US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-9 | W |
| 30/08 | Hugo Gaston US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-10 | W |
| 26/08 | Martin Damm ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 18/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 16/08 | Marco Trungelliti ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Pablo Carreno Busta
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 28/09 | Yi Zhou ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/08 | Jiri Lehecka US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 15-23 | L |
| 16/08 | Andrey Rublev ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 14/08 | Tomas Machac ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/08 | Valentin Royer ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 23/07 | Luca Van Assche ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 21/07 | Vilius Gaubas ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/07 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli ATP Umag · Clay |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 14/07 | Matej Dodig ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno Busta?
Our model gives 69% to Daniil Medvedev, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.