Tennis · ATP Beijing · 29/09, 07:30
Prediction: Adrian Mannarino vs Pablo Carreno Busta
Team pages: Adrian Mannarino · Pablo Carreno Busta
Prediction summary
Winner
Adrian Mannarino
Pablo Carreno Busta
Estimated games
24Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Adrian Mannarino
5-5 (W-L)
Pablo Carreno Busta
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Adrian Mannarino
0–2
Pablo Carreno Busta
(2 last)
- 10 Feb1-2 16-19L
- 26 Apr1-2 14-17L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Adrian Mannarino 1510 · Pablo Carreno Busta 1484
| Adrian Mannarino | Pablo Carreno Busta | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 39% | 61% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Adrian Mannarino 0–2 Pablo Carreno Busta (2).
Statistics
| Adrian Mannarino | Pablo Carreno Busta | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.4 | 1.4-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.6-13.5 | 13.3-12.8 |
| Aces | 5.2 | 3.6 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 70.3% | 69% |
| Break % | 29.3% | 47.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.5
Over 22.5: 60% · 1.90
Under 22.5: 40% · 1.80
H2H · Adrian Mannarino 0 – 2 Pablo Carreno Busta (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Adrian Mannarino 0–2 Pablo Carreno Busta
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/02/20 ATP Rotterdam | 1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 26/04/18 ATP Barcelona | 1-2 | 14-17 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Adrian Mannarino
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 17-18 | W |
| 27/09 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Chengdu · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 25/09 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 24/09 | Juncheng Shang ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 17/09 | Matisse Bobichon Challenger Rennes · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 15/09 | Dan Added Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 03/09 | Alexander Bublik US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 5-18 | L |
| 31/08 | Thiago Agustin Tirante US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 25-21 | W |
| 26/08 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 13/08 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Pablo Carreno Busta
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09 | Yi Zhou ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/08 | Jiri Lehecka US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 15-23 | L |
| 16/08 | Andrey Rublev ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 14/08 | Tomas Machac ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/08 | Valentin Royer ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 23/07 | Luca Van Assche ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 21/07 | Vilius Gaubas ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/07 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli ATP Umag · Clay |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 14/07 | Matej Dodig ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/07 | Rafael Jodar Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 22-22 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Adrian Mannarino vs Pablo Carreno Busta?
Our model gives 54% to Pablo Carreno Busta, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.