Tennis · WTA Beijing · 01/10, 05:00
Prediction: Paula Badosa vs Daria Kasatkina
Team pages: Paula Badosa · Daria Kasatkina
Prediction summary
Winner
Paula Badosa
Daria Kasatkina
Estimated games
22.8
Recent form · 10 last
Paula Badosa
5-5 (W-L)
Daria Kasatkina
1-9 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Paula Badosa
4–3
Daria Kasatkina
(7 last)
- 02 Sept2-0 12-5W
- 31 May0-2 6-13L
- 05 Jul2-1 17-16W
- 18 Apr2-0 12-2W
- 07 Aug0-2 6-12L
- 12 May0-2 8-12L
- 14 Jan2-0 12-4W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Paula Badosa 1550 · Daria Kasatkina 1455
| Paula Badosa | Daria Kasatkina | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 68% | 32% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Paula Badosa (rating 1550 vs 1455).
- Paula Badosa is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Paula Badosa 4–3 Daria Kasatkina (7).
- Note: Paula Badosa makes many double faults (6.8/match).
- Note: Daria Kasatkina makes many double faults (8.7/match).
Statistics
| Paula Badosa | Daria Kasatkina | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (6) | 38% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.8 | 1-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.8-10.1 | 11.5-13.1 |
| Aces | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| Double faults | 6.8 | 8.7 |
| 1st serve % | 69.1% | 59.1% |
| Break % | 46.7% | 48.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.8
H2H · Paula Badosa 4 – 3 Daria Kasatkina (7)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Paula Badosa 4–3 Daria Kasatkina
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09/26 US Open Women | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 31/05/25 French Open Women | 0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 05/07/24 Wimbledon Women | 2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 18/04/23 WTA Stuttgart | 2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 07/08/22 WTA San Jose | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 12/05/22 WTA Rome | 0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 14/01/22 WTA Sydney | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Paula Badosa
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Nadia Podoroska WTA Sao Paulo · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 18/09 | Mary Stoiana WTA Sao Paulo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/09 | Jazmin Ortenzi WTA Sao Paulo · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 17/09 | Justina Mikulskyte WTA Sao Paulo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/09 | Coco Gauff US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 02/09 | Daria Kasatkina US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/07 | Mayar Sherif WTA Hamburg · Clay |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 23/07 | Panna Udvardy WTA Hamburg · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/07 | Katarzyna Kawa WTA Hamburg · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 18/07 | Tamara Zidansek WTA Iasi · Clay |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
Daria Kasatkina
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich WTA Singapore · Hard |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 02/09 | Paula Badosa US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Zeynep Sonmez WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 05/08 | Elena Rybakina WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 04/08 | Xinyu Wang WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 15-17 | W |
| 28/07 | Anna Kalinskaya WTA Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 26/07 | Alana Smith WTA Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 25/07 | Mariam Bolkvadze WTA Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 03/07 | Naomi Osaka Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Janice Tjen Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Paula Badosa vs Daria Kasatkina?
Our model gives 66% to Paula Badosa, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.