Tennis · ATP Beijing · 30/09, 05:00
Prediction: Karen Khachanov vs Felix Auger Aliassime
Team pages: Karen Khachanov · Felix Auger Aliassime
Prediction summary
Winner
Karen Khachanov
Felix Auger Aliassime
Estimated games
29.3Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Karen Khachanov
6-4 (W-L)
Felix Auger Aliassime
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Karen Khachanov
3–2
Felix Auger Aliassime
(5 last)
- 03 Sept3-1 24-14W
- 19 Jun2-1 13-12W
- 10 Jun0-2 10-13L
- 18 Aug1-2 14-18L
- 08 Aug2-1 19-15W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Karen Khachanov 1527 · Felix Auger Aliassime 1539
| Karen Khachanov | Felix Auger Aliassime | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Karen Khachanov dominates on serve: 8.8 aces and 42.6% break avg.
- Felix Auger Aliassime dominates on serve: 15 aces and 49.7% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Karen Khachanov 3–2 Felix Auger Aliassime (5).
- Note: Felix Auger Aliassime makes many double faults (4.7/match).
Statistics
| Karen Khachanov | Felix Auger Aliassime | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (8) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-1.5 | 2-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 17.7-14.9 | 18.3-16.2 |
| Aces | 8.8 | 15 |
| Double faults | 3.5 | 4.7 |
| 1st serve % | 76.8% | 78.7% |
| Break % | 42.6% | 49.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
29.3 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +5.8
Over 23.5: 85% · 1.90
Under 23.5: 15% · 1.80
H2H · Karen Khachanov 3 – 2 Felix Auger Aliassime (5)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Karen Khachanov 3–2 Felix Auger Aliassime
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09/26 US Open | 3-1 | 24-14 | W |
| 19/06/25 ATP Halle | 2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 10/06/22 ATP Hertogenbosch | 0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 18/08/21 ATP Cincinnati | 1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 08/08/19 ATP Montreal | 2-1 | 19-15 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Karen Khachanov
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09 | Alexander Zverev US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 15-20 | L |
| 07/09 | Learner Tien US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 29-23 | W |
| 05/09 | Benjamin Bonzi US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-9 | W |
| 03/09 | Felix Auger Aliassime US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-14 | W |
| 31/08 | Roman Andres Burruchaga US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-4 | W |
| 15/08 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 06/08 | Terence Atmane ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 30/07 | Bernard Tomic ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 04/07 | Flavio Cobolli Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 23-25 | L |
| 02/07 | Yannick Hanfmann Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-11 | W |
Felix Auger Aliassime
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Arthur Rinderknech Davis Cup |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 19/09 | Quentin Halys Davis Cup |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 03/09 | Karen Khachanov US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 14-24 | L |
| 01/09 | Rinky Hijikata US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-19 | W |
| 20/08 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 19/08 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 16/08 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 07/07 | Novak Djokovic Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 28-29 | L |
| 05/07 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 31-24 | W |
| 03/07 | Michael Zheng Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Karen Khachanov vs Felix Auger Aliassime?
Our model gives 56% to Felix Auger Aliassime, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.