Tennis · ATP Beijing · 30/09, 05:00
Prediction: Tallon Griekspoor vs Andrey Rublev
Team pages: Tallon Griekspoor · Andrey Rublev
Prediction summary
Winner
Tallon Griekspoor
Andrey Rublev
Estimated games
25.3Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Tallon Griekspoor
3-7 (W-L)
Andrey Rublev
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Tallon Griekspoor
1–3
Andrey Rublev
(4 last)
- 27 Feb2-0 14-11W
- 30 Apr0-2 6-12L
- 23 Jun1-2 13-15L
- 22 Feb1-2 13-14L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tallon Griekspoor 1497 · Andrey Rublev 1542
| Tallon Griekspoor | Andrey Rublev | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Andrey Rublev (rating 1497 vs 1542).
- Head-to-head: Tallon Griekspoor 1–3 Andrey Rublev (4).
Statistics
| Tallon Griekspoor | Andrey Rublev | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 43% (7) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.6 | 1.6-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.7-14.3 | 15.4-12.7 |
| Aces | 10.2 | 9.6 |
| Double faults | 3.7 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 74.4% | 77.1% |
| Break % | 35.3% | 35.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.3 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +2.8
Over 22.5: 69% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 31% · 1.90
H2H · Tallon Griekspoor 1 – 3 Andrey Rublev (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tallon Griekspoor 1–3 Andrey Rublev
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/02/26 ATP Dubai | 2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 30/04/24 ATP Madrid | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/06/23 ATP Halle | 1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 22/02/23 ATP Doha | 1-2 | 13-14 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tallon Griekspoor
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 18/09 | Nicolas Mejia Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/09 | Ben Shelton US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 15-20 | L |
| 09/08 | Daniel Merida Aguilar ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 07/08 | Matteo Arnaldi ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 05/08 | Alexander Zverev ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 04/08 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 27/07 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 30/06 | James Duckworth Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 19-23 | L |
| 16/06 | Sho Shimabukuro ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
Andrey Rublev
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 27/09 | Hugo Gaston ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 25/09 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/09 | Daniel Merida Aguilar US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 17-24 | L |
| 31/08 | Otto Virtanen US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 31-22 | W |
| 18/08 | Nuno Borges ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/08 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 04/08 | Juncheng Shang ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 24/07 | Luca Van Assche ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 23/07 | Timofey Skatov ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tallon Griekspoor vs Andrey Rublev?
Our model gives 61% to Andrey Rublev, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.