Tennis · ATP Beijing · 30/09, 05:00
Prediction: Alex De Minaur vs Mariano Navone
Team pages: Alex De Minaur · Mariano Navone
Prediction summary
Winner
Alex De Minaur
Mariano Navone
Estimated games
24.3Bet365 line 19.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alex De Minaur
6-4 (W-L)
Mariano Navone
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alex De Minaur
1–0
Mariano Navone
(1 last)
- 29 Oct2-0 13-6W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alex De Minaur 1559 · Mariano Navone 1502
| Alex De Minaur | Mariano Navone | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 81% | 19% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alex De Minaur (rating 1559 vs 1502).
- Head-to-head: Alex De Minaur 1–0 Mariano Navone (1).
Statistics
| Alex De Minaur | Mariano Navone | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 63% (8) | 56% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.9 | 1.2-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.5-12.1 | 13.4-14.3 |
| Aces | 4.8 | 2.6 |
| Double faults | 3.5 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 71.3% | 66.9% |
| Break % | 37.6% | 36% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.3 · Bet365 line 19.5 · +4.8
Over 19.5: 80% · 1.72
Under 19.5: 20% · 2.00
H2H · Alex De Minaur 1 – 0 Mariano Navone (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alex De Minaur 1–0 Mariano Navone
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10/24 ATP Paris | 2-0 | 13-6 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alex De Minaur
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09 | Alexander Zverev Laver Cup · Hard |
2-1 | 20-21 | W |
| 20/09 | Kamil Majchrzak Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/09 | Maks Kasnikowski Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/09 | Botic Van De Zandschulp US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 11-19 | L |
| 02/09 | Andrea Guerrieri US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-8 | W |
| 19/08 | Arthur Fils ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 17/08 | Arthur Fery ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 15/08 | Quentin Halys ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 06/08 | Cameron Norrie ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 05/08 | James Duckworth ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Mariano Navone
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 11-18 | L |
| 03/09 | Matteo Berrettini US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 22-19 | W |
| 31/08 | Novak Djokovic US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 28-22 | W |
| 25/08 | James Duckworth ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 15/08 | Alexander Blockx ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Raphael Collignon ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 06/08 | Arthur Fils ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Valentin Vacherot ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 03/08 | Matteo Berrettini ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 23/07 | Quentin Halys ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alex De Minaur vs Mariano Navone?
Our model gives 71% to Alex De Minaur, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.