Tennis · ATP Beijing · 30/09, 05:00
Prediction: Alexander Bublik vs Jakub Mensik
Team pages: Alexander Bublik · Jakub Mensik
Prediction summary
Winner
Alexander Bublik
Jakub Mensik
Estimated games
25.6Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alexander Bublik
6-4 (W-L)
Jakub Mensik
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alexander Bublik
1–2
Jakub Mensik
(3 last)
- 29 Apr0-2 5-12L
- 04 Feb0-2 8-12L
- 01 Jul3-2 28-23W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexander Bublik 1512 · Jakub Mensik 1540
| Alexander Bublik | Jakub Mensik | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 36% | 64% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Alexander Bublik 1–2 Jakub Mensik (3).
- Note: Alexander Bublik makes many double faults (4.5/match).
- Note: Jakub Mensik makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Alexander Bublik | Jakub Mensik | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (4) | 50% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.3 | 1.6-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.3-12.8 | 14.7-14.7 |
| Aces | 11.1 | 10.9 |
| Double faults | 4.5 | 4.2 |
| 1st serve % | 77.1% | 76% |
| Break % | 33.8% | 34.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.6 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +3.1
Over 22.5: 71% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 29% · 1.90
H2H · Alexander Bublik 1 – 2 Jakub Mensik (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alexander Bublik 1–2 Jakub Mensik
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/04/25 ATP Madrid | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 04/02/25 ATP Rotterdam | 0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 01/07/24 Wimbledon | 3-2 | 28-23 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexander Bublik
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09 | Rafael Jodar Laver Cup · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 04/09 | Tommy Paul US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 21-27 | L |
| 03/09 | Adrian Mannarino US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-5 | W |
| 31/08 | Jeffrey John Wolf US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 21-13 | W |
| 25/07 | Quentin Halys ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 24/07 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 23/07 | Alex Molcan ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/07 | Facundo Diaz Acosta ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 17/07 | Quentin Halys ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 06/07 | Taylor Fritz Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 14-19 | L |
Jakub Mensik
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09 | Brandon Nakashima Laver Cup · Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 19/09 | Ben Shelton Davis Cup |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 18/09 | Learner Tien Davis Cup |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 06/09 | Learner Tien US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 23-25 | L |
| 03/09 | Jurij Rodionov US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 21-14 | W |
| 01/09 | Shintaro Mochizuki US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-10 | W |
| 19/08 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 18/08 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 15/08 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-17 | W |
| 12/08 | Ben Shelton ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexander Bublik vs Jakub Mensik?
Our model gives 59% to Jakub Mensik, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.