Tennis · ATP Beijing · 30/09, 05:00
Prediction: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Thiago Agustin Tirante
Team pages: Jan-Lennard Struff · Thiago Agustin Tirante
Prediction summary
Winner
Jan-Lennard Struff
Thiago Agustin Tirante
Estimated games
25.8Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Jan-Lennard Struff
4-6 (W-L)
Thiago Agustin Tirante
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jan-Lennard Struff 1491 · Thiago Agustin Tirante 1560
| Jan-Lennard Struff | Thiago Agustin Tirante | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 43% | 57% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Thiago Agustin Tirante (rating 1491 vs 1560).
- Jan-Lennard Struff dominates on serve: 14 aces and 50.2% break avg.
- Note: Jan-Lennard Struff makes many double faults (5.3/match).
Statistics
| Jan-Lennard Struff | Thiago Agustin Tirante | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (5) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-1.6 | 1.6-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.6-17.6 | 13.6-13 |
| Aces | 14 | 10.9 |
| Double faults | 5.3 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 73% | 80.3% |
| Break % | 50.2% | 33.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.8 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +3.3
Over 22.5: 72% · 1.72
Under 22.5: 28% · 2.00
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jan-Lennard Struff
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09 | Francisco Cerundolo US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 23-28 | L |
| 01/09 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-10 | W |
| 15/08 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Roman Andres Burruchaga ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 04/08 | Alex Michelsen ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 8-15 | L |
| 22/07 | Mariano Navone ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 21/07 | Alexander Shevchenko ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 07/07 | Jannik Sinner Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 14-20 | L |
| 03/07 | Daniil Medvedev Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 21-17 | W |
| 02/07 | Brandon Nakashima Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 31-31 | W |
Thiago Agustin Tirante
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Mert Alkaya Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 31/08 | Adrian Mannarino US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 21-25 | L |
| 21/08 | Arthur Fils ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 19/08 | Jakub Mensik ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 17/08 | Martin Landaluce ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 15/08 | Novak Djokovic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 13/08 | Jan Choinski ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 09/08 | Learner Tien ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 08/08 | Alexei Popyrin ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/08 | Taylor Fritz ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jan-Lennard Struff vs Thiago Agustin Tirante?
Our model gives 58% to Thiago Agustin Tirante, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.