Tennis · ATP Beijing · 30/09, 05:00
Prediction: Nuno Borges vs Novak Djokovic
Team pages: Nuno Borges · Novak Djokovic
Prediction summary
Winner
Nuno Borges
Novak Djokovic
Estimated games
28.5Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Nuno Borges
5-5 (W-L)
Novak Djokovic
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Nuno Borges
0–1
Novak Djokovic
(1 last)
- 06 Nov0-2 10-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nuno Borges 1527 · Novak Djokovic 1535
| Nuno Borges | Novak Djokovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Nuno Borges 0–1 Novak Djokovic (1).
- Note: Novak Djokovic makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Nuno Borges | Novak Djokovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (9) | 0% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.1 | 2.3-1.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.9-12.8 | 21-19.8 |
| Aces | 8.5 | 10.7 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 4.4 |
| 1st serve % | 78.6% | 74.4% |
| Break % | 38% | 39.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
28.5 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +6
Over 22.5: 85% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 15% · 1.90
H2H · Nuno Borges 0 – 1 Novak Djokovic (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nuno Borges 0–1 Novak Djokovic
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11/25 ATP Athens | 0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nuno Borges
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | Learner Tien US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 7-18 | L |
| 20/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 18/08 | Andrey Rublev ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 16/08 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 14/08 | Thanasi Kokkinakis ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 19-19 | W |
| 08/08 | Luciano Darderi ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 06/08 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 05/08 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/08 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 22/07 | Roman Andres Burruchaga ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
Novak Djokovic
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Mariano Navone US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 22-28 | L |
| 15/08 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 10/07 | Jannik Sinner Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 12-18 | L |
| 07/07 | Felix Auger Aliassime Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 29-28 | W |
| 05/07 | Roman Safiullin Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 22-18 | W |
| 03/07 | Arthur Rinderknech Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 21-21 | W |
| 01/07 | Stefanos Tsitsipas Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-9 | W |
| 29/06 | Yibing Wu Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-19 | W |
| 29/05 | Joao Fonseca French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 25-28 | L |
| 27/05 | Valentin Royer French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 24-15 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nuno Borges vs Novak Djokovic?
Our model gives 59% to Novak Djokovic, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.