Tennis · ATP Beijing · 30/09, 05:00
Prediction: Juncheng Shang vs Sebastian Baez
Team pages: Juncheng Shang · Sebastian Baez
Prediction summary
Winner
Juncheng Shang
Sebastian Baez
Estimated games
23Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Juncheng Shang
5-5 (W-L)
Sebastian Baez
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Juncheng Shang 1415 · Sebastian Baez 1517
| Juncheng Shang | Sebastian Baez | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 64% |
| Market | 57% | 43% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sebastian Baez (rating 1415 vs 1517).
- Sebastian Baez is in better form: 50% recent wins.
Statistics
| Juncheng Shang | Sebastian Baez | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 20% (10) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.9 | 1.2-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-14.5 | 10.5-11.9 |
| Aces | 3.9 | 2.1 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 65.3% | 68.8% |
| Break % | 25.1% | 47.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +0.5
Over 22.5: 54% · 1.90
Under 22.5: 46% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Juncheng Shang
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 31/08 | Marco Trungelliti US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 25-20 | L |
| 14/08 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 06/08 | Luciano Darderi ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 04/08 | Andrey Rublev ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 02/08 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 27/07 | Kei Nishikori ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 24/02 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Dubai · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 16/02 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Doha · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/01 | Botic Van De Zandschulp Australian Open · Hard |
0-3 | 11-19 | L |
Sebastian Baez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 31/08 | Brandon Nakashima US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 3-18 | L |
| 26/08 | Hugo Grenier ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 24/08 | Hubert Hurkacz Challenger Cancun · Hard |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 23/08 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 22/08 | Coleman Wong Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 21/08 | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 16/08 | Learner Tien ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 14/08 | Grigor Dimitrov ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 05/08 | Zizou Bergs ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Juncheng Shang vs Sebastian Baez?
Our model gives 53% to Sebastian Baez, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.