Tennis · ATP Beijing · 30/09, 05:00
Prediction: Alexander Zverev vs Cameron Norrie
Team pages: Alexander Zverev · Cameron Norrie
Prediction summary
Winner
Alexander Zverev
Cameron Norrie
Estimated games
26.6Bet365 line 19.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alexander Zverev
10-0 (W-L)
Cameron Norrie
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alexander Zverev
8–0
Cameron Norrie
(8 last)
- 16 Aug2-1 15-12W
- 23 Jan3-1 23-15W
- 06 Jul3-0 19-14W
- 22 Jan3-2 27-26W
- 25 Oct2-0 12-6W
- 02 Jan2-0 13-7W
- 07 Aug2-0 13-10W
- 02 Mar2-0 13-9W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexander Zverev 1644 · Cameron Norrie 1517
| Alexander Zverev | Cameron Norrie | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 68% | 32% |
| Market | 85% | 15% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alexander Zverev (rating 1644 vs 1517).
- Alexander Zverev dominates on serve: 11.5 aces and 40.7% break avg.
- Alexander Zverev is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Alexander Zverev 8–0 Cameron Norrie (8).
- Note: Alexander Zverev makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Alexander Zverev | Cameron Norrie | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 88% (8) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2.5-0.5 | 1.5-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 18.9-13.2 | 13-11.9 |
| Aces | 11.5 | 3.9 |
| Double faults | 4.2 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 79.2% | 71.8% |
| Break % | 40.7% | 44.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.6 · Bet365 line 19.5 · +7.1
Over 19.5: 89% · 1.72
Under 19.5: 11% · 2.00
H2H · Alexander Zverev 8 – 0 Cameron Norrie (8)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alexander Zverev 8–0 Cameron Norrie
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/26 ATP Cincinnati | 2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 23/01/26 Australian Open | 3-1 | 23-15 | W |
| 06/07/24 Wimbledon | 3-0 | 19-14 | W |
| 22/01/24 Australian Open | 3-2 | 27-26 | W |
| 25/10/23 ATP Vienna | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/01/22 ATP Cup | 2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 07/08/19 ATP Montreal | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 02/03/19 ATP Acapulco | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexander Zverev
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Learner Tien Laver Cup · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 26/09 | Alex De Minaur Laver Cup · Hard |
1-2 | 21-20 | L |
| 20/09 | Dino Prizmic Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/09 | Matej Dodig Davis Cup |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 13/09 | Ben Shelton US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-18 | W |
| 11/09 | Karen Khachanov US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 20-15 | W |
| 10/09 | Botic Van De Zandschulp US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-8 | W |
| 08/09 | Luciano Darderi US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-10 | W |
| 06/09 | Alejandro Tabilo US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-10 | W |
| 04/09 | Quentin Halys US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 29-26 | W |
Cameron Norrie
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Luca Van Assche US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 14-24 | L |
| 16/08 | Alexander Zverev ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 13/08 | Dino Prizmic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 09/08 | Arthur Fils ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 06/08 | Alex De Minaur ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 05/08 | Ignacio Buse ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/08 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 01/08 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 31/07 | Bernard Tomic ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 30/07 | James Duckworth ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexander Zverev vs Cameron Norrie?
Our model gives 77% to Alexander Zverev, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.