Tennis · ATP Beijing · 30/09, 05:00
Prediction: Learner Tien vs Hubert Hurkacz
Team pages: Learner Tien · Hubert Hurkacz
Prediction summary
Winner
Learner Tien
Hubert Hurkacz
Estimated games
25.6Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Learner Tien
6-4 (W-L)
Hubert Hurkacz
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Learner Tien 1569 · Hubert Hurkacz 1642
| Learner Tien | Hubert Hurkacz | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 60% | 40% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hubert Hurkacz (rating 1569 vs 1642).
- Hubert Hurkacz dominates on serve: 12.1 aces and 49.2% break avg.
- Hubert Hurkacz is in better form: 90% recent wins.
Statistics
| Learner Tien | Hubert Hurkacz | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 63% (8) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-1.2 | 2-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.8-14.2 | 15.9-11.7 |
| Aces | 3.2 | 12.1 |
| Double faults | 3.5 | 3.1 |
| 1st serve % | 72.6% | 77.9% |
| Break % | 43.7% | 49.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.6 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +3.1
Over 22.5: 71% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 29% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Learner Tien
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Alexander Zverev Laver Cup · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 26/09 | Flavio Cobolli Laver Cup · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 19/09 | Jiri Lehecka Davis Cup |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 18/09 | Jakub Mensik Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/09 | Karen Khachanov US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 23-29 | L |
| 06/09 | Jakub Mensik US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 25-23 | W |
| 04/09 | Gael Monfils US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-10 | W |
| 01/09 | Nuno Borges US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-7 | W |
| 19/08 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 16/08 | Sebastian Baez ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Hubert Hurkacz
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 27/09 | Lloyd Harris ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 26/09 | Martin Damm ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 24/09 | Alexander Shevchenko ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 02/09 | Ben Shelton US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 21-25 | L |
| 31/08 | Damir Dzumhur US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 22-12 | W |
| 24/08 | Sebastian Baez Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 23/08 | Moez Echargui Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 21/08 | Roman Safiullin Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 20/08 | Henrique Rocha Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Learner Tien vs Hubert Hurkacz?
Our model gives 51% to Learner Tien, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.