Tennis · ATP Beijing · 30/09, 05:00
Prediction: Roman Safiullin vs Flavio Cobolli
Team pages: Roman Safiullin · Flavio Cobolli
Prediction summary
Winner
Roman Safiullin
Flavio Cobolli
Estimated games
26.2Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Roman Safiullin
4-6 (W-L)
Flavio Cobolli
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Roman Safiullin
0–1
Flavio Cobolli
(1 last)
- 24 Aug0-2 8-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Roman Safiullin 1524 · Flavio Cobolli 1533
| Roman Safiullin | Flavio Cobolli | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 47% | 53% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Roman Safiullin dominates on serve: 6.6 aces and 46.5% break avg.
- Flavio Cobolli dominates on serve: 6.5 aces and 42.3% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Roman Safiullin 0–1 Flavio Cobolli (1).
Statistics
| Roman Safiullin | Flavio Cobolli | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 56% (9) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.3 | 1.6-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.6-11.8 | 15.8-16.3 |
| Aces | 6.6 | 6.5 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 74.6% | 69.8% |
| Break % | 46.5% | 42.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.2 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +2.7
Over 23.5: 68% · 1.90
Under 23.5: 32% · 1.80
H2H · Roman Safiullin 0 – 1 Flavio Cobolli (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Roman Safiullin 0–1 Flavio Cobolli
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08/22 US Open | 0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Roman Safiullin
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 27/09 | Bu Yunchaokete ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/09 | Quentin Halys ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 24/09 | Fajing Sun ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 31/08 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 12-18 | L |
| 25/08 | Hugo Grenier ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 21/08 | Hubert Hurkacz Challenger Cancun · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 21/08 | Stan Wawrinka Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 18/08 | Sebastian Ofner Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/07 | Novak Djokovic Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 18-22 | L |
Flavio Cobolli
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09 | Learner Tien Laver Cup · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 05/09 | Alexander Blockx US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 13-24 | L |
| 03/09 | Tristan Schoolkate US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 22-18 | W |
| 01/09 | Francisco Comesana US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 23-23 | W |
| 22/08 | Arthur Fils ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 20/08 | Tommy Paul ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 19/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 17/08 | Alexander Blockx ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 15/08 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 05/08 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Roman Safiullin vs Flavio Cobolli?
Our model gives 52% to Flavio Cobolli, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.