Tennis · ATP Beijing · 29/09, 04:00
Prediction: Tomas Machac vs Arthur Gea
Team pages: Tomas Machac · Arthur Gea
Prediction summary
Winner
Tomas Machac
Arthur Gea
Estimated games
26.1Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Tomas Machac
3-7 (W-L)
Arthur Gea
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tomas Machac 1473 · Arthur Gea 1587
| Tomas Machac | Arthur Gea | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 66% |
| Market | 42% | 58% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arthur Gea (rating 1473 vs 1587).
- Arthur Gea dominates on serve: 6.1 aces and 49.7% break avg.
- Arthur Gea is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Arthur Gea makes many double faults (5.6/match).
Statistics
| Tomas Machac | Arthur Gea | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 25% (4) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.6 | 2.1-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.6-14.5 | 17.3-14 |
| Aces | 4.5 | 6.1 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 5.6 |
| 1st serve % | 67.3% | 72.8% |
| Break % | 32.4% | 49.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.1 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +3.6
Over 22.5: 73% · 1.90
Under 22.5: 27% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tomas Machac
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 30/08 | Toby Samuel US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 7-18 | L |
| 26/08 | Mees Rottgering ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 14/08 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 27/05 | Alexander Zverev French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 8-18 | L |
| 24/05 | Zizou Bergs French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 18-11 | W |
| 07/05 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 24/04 | Cameron Norrie ATP Madrid · Clay |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 22/04 | Francisco Comesana ATP Madrid · Clay |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 17/04 | Andrey Rublev ATP Barcelona · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Arthur Gea
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09 | Rigele Te ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/09 | Botic Van De Zandschulp US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 29-29 | L |
| 05/09 | Michael Zheng US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 26-23 | W |
| 04/09 | Zachary Svajda US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 23-14 | W |
| 01/09 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 23-19 | W |
| 28/08 | Nishesh Basavareddy US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Clement Chidekh US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 25/08 | Sumit Nagal US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 02/08 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 01/08 | Coleman Wong ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tomas Machac vs Arthur Gea?
Our model gives 61% to Arthur Gea, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.