Tennis · ATP Beijing · 28/09, 06:30
Prediction: Martin Landaluce vs Marco Trungelliti
Team pages: Martin Landaluce · Marco Trungelliti
Prediction summary
Winner
Martin Landaluce
Marco Trungelliti
Estimated games
25.2Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Martin Landaluce
5-5 (W-L)
Marco Trungelliti
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Martin Landaluce 1455 · Marco Trungelliti 1510
| Martin Landaluce | Marco Trungelliti | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 63% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Marco Trungelliti (rating 1455 vs 1510).
- Marco Trungelliti is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Martin Landaluce makes many double faults (6.7/match).
Statistics
| Martin Landaluce | Marco Trungelliti | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 29% (7) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.7 | 1.6-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.1-14.4 | 14.5-15 |
| Aces | 4.7 | 5.1 |
| Double faults | 6.7 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 67.9% | 70.5% |
| Break % | 37.9% | 45.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.2 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +2.7
Over 22.5: 68% · 2.00
Under 22.5: 32% · 1.72
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Martin Landaluce
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Matias Soto Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/09 | Dusan Lajovic Challenger Seville · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 31/08 | Jacob Fearnley US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 22-27 | L |
| 23/08 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 17/08 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 15/08 | Matteo Arnaldi ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 13/08 | Jack Draper ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 03/08 | Nicolas Mejia ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 29/07 | Michael Zheng ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 29/06 | Soonwoo Kwon Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 10-18 | L |
Marco Trungelliti
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Thiago Monteiro Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 18/09 | Marco Cecchinato Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 17/09 | Filip Pieczonka Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 15/09 | Sean Cuenin Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 08/09 | Tiago Pereira Challenger Seville · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 03/09 | Alexander Blockx US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 12-21 | L |
| 31/08 | Juncheng Shang US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 20-25 | W |
| 16/08 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 14/08 | Hamad Medjedovic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 13/08 | Kei Nishikori ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Martin Landaluce vs Marco Trungelliti?
Our model gives 53% to Martin Landaluce, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.