Tennis · ATP Beijing · 28/09, 08:00
Prediction: Yi Zhou vs Pablo Carreno Busta
Team pages: Yi Zhou · Pablo Carreno Busta
Prediction summary
Winner
Yi Zhou
Pablo Carreno Busta
Estimated games
24.5Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Yi Zhou
7-3 (W-L)
Pablo Carreno Busta
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Yi Zhou 1476 · Pablo Carreno Busta 1459
| Yi Zhou | Pablo Carreno Busta | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 23% | 77% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Yi Zhou | Pablo Carreno Busta | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (10) | 25% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.3 | 1.4-1.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-12.5 | 13.7-14.6 |
| Aces | 8 | 3.6 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 3.4 |
| 1st serve % | 75.3% | 67.6% |
| Break % | 38.2% | 45.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.5 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +4
Over 20.5: 76% · 1.80
Under 20.5: 24% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Yi Zhou
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 11/09 | Ilya Ivashka Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 10/09 | Jie Cui Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 08/09 | Sergey Fomin Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 01/09 | Ilya Ivashka Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 29/07 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 22/07 | Luka Pavlovic Challenger Segovia · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 20/07 | Michael Geerts Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/07 | Tiago Pereira Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 14/07 | Stefan Kozlov Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
Pablo Carreno Busta
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Jiri Lehecka US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 15-23 | L |
| 16/08 | Andrey Rublev ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 14/08 | Tomas Machac ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/08 | Valentin Royer ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 23/07 | Luca Van Assche ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 21/07 | Vilius Gaubas ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/07 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli ATP Umag · Clay |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 14/07 | Matej Dodig ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/07 | Rafael Jodar Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 22-22 | L |
| 31/05 | Rafael Jodar French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 17-26 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Yi Zhou vs Pablo Carreno Busta?
Our model gives 64% to Pablo Carreno Busta, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.