Tennis · WTA Beijing · 28/09, 06:30
Prediction: Katarzyna Kawa vs Rinko Matsuda
Team pages: Katarzyna Kawa · Rinko Matsuda
Prediction summary
Winner
Katarzyna Kawa
Rinko Matsuda
Estimated games
22.8
Recent form · 10 last
Katarzyna Kawa
4-6 (W-L)
Rinko Matsuda
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Katarzyna Kawa 1439 · Rinko Matsuda 1527
| Katarzyna Kawa | Rinko Matsuda | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 62% |
| Market | 61% | 39% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rinko Matsuda (rating 1439 vs 1527).
- Rinko Matsuda is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Katarzyna Kawa makes many double faults (4.7/match).
Statistics
| Katarzyna Kawa | Rinko Matsuda | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 17% (6) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.7 | 1.4-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.7-13.3 | 11.7-11.1 |
| Aces | 2 | 1.8 |
| Double faults | 4.7 | 1 |
| 1st serve % | 56.7% | 60% |
| Break % | 52.4% | 51.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Katarzyna Kawa
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09 | Maria Garcia Cid WTA Valencia · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 08/09 | Eva Bennemann WTA Antalya · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 24/08 | Ekaterine Gorgodze US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 12/08 | Eva Lys WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 05/08 | Justina Mikulskyte WTA Warsaw · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 03/08 | Linda Fruhvirtova WTA Warsaw · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 22/07 | Paula Badosa WTA Hamburg · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 16/07 | Panna Udvardy WTA Iasi · Clay |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 14/07 | Simona Waltert WTA Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/07 | Simona Waltert WTA Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Rinko Matsuda
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09 | Sakura Hosogi W50 Nanao |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 22/09 | Ikumi Yamazaki W50 Nanao |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/09 | Hiromi Abe W35 Kyoto |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 18/09 | Natsumi Kawaguchi W35 Kyoto |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/09 | Hina Inoue W35 Kyoto |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 15/09 | Ayumi Miyamoto W35 Kyoto |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 31/08 | Shiyu Ye W75 Tianjin |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 30/08 | Sakura Hosogi W75 Tianjin |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 27/08 | Priska Madelyn Nugroho W15 Tianjin |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Kamonwan Yodpetch W15 Tianjin |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Katarzyna Kawa vs Rinko Matsuda?
Our model gives 50% to Katarzyna Kawa, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.