Tennis · M25 Santa Margherita · 23/09, 10:00
Prediction: Gabriele Pennaforti vs Lorenzo Carboni
Team pages: Gabriele Pennaforti · Lorenzo Carboni
Prediction summary
Winner
Gabriele Pennaforti
Lorenzo Carboni
Estimated games
19.7
Recent form · 10 last
Gabriele Pennaforti
5-5 (W-L)
Lorenzo Carboni
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gabriele Pennaforti 1461 · Lorenzo Carboni 1500
| Gabriele Pennaforti | Lorenzo Carboni | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 28% | 72% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Lorenzo Carboni is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Gabriele Pennaforti makes many double faults (4.7/match).
Statistics
| Gabriele Pennaforti | Lorenzo Carboni | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 33% (6) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.4 | 1.3-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 8-10 | 10.1-9 |
| Aces | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| Double faults | 4.7 | 1.5 |
| 1st serve % | 62.3% | 61.9% |
| Break % | 44.4% | 56.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gabriele Pennaforti
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09 | Nicholas David Ionel M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 14/09 | Nicolas Parizzia M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 19/08 | Thilo Behrmann M15 Mistelbach |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 12/08 | George Lazarov M25 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 03/08 | Peter Buldorini M25 Fano |
1-2 | 12-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Gabriele Crivellaro M25 Bolzano · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Giacomo Crisostomo M25 Bolzano · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 16/07 | Pietro Marino M15 Gubbio |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 15/07 | David Eichenseher M15 Gubbio |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 24/06 | Filiberto Fumagalli M15 Bergamo · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Lorenzo Carboni
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09 | Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 15/09 | Matteo Sciahbasi M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 06/09 | Gerard Campana Lee Challenger Seville · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/08 | Andrey Chepelev M25 Lausanne |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/08 | Noah Karma M25 Lausanne |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 27/08 | Nicolas Ulrich M25 Lausanne |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 25/08 | Arthur Bellegy M25 Lausanne |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 11/08 | Daniel Michalski Challenger Todi · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 10/08 | Maximilian Homberg Challenger Todi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 09/08 | Gabriele Maria Noce Challenger Todi · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gabriele Pennaforti vs Lorenzo Carboni?
Our model gives 65% to Lorenzo Carboni, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.