Tennis · M25 Setubal · 23/09, 11:00
Prediction: Diogo Morais vs Lucas Poullain
Team pages: Diogo Morais · Lucas Poullain
Prediction summary
Winner
Diogo Morais
Lucas Poullain
Estimated games
21.1
Recent form · 10 last
Diogo Morais
5-5 (W-L)
Lucas Poullain
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Diogo Morais 1521 · Lucas Poullain 1565
| Diogo Morais | Lucas Poullain | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 17% | 83% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lucas Poullain (rating 1521 vs 1565).
Statistics
| Diogo Morais | Lucas Poullain | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | – | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.1 | 1.4-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.7-10 | 11.6-9 |
| Aces | 1.1 | 2.8 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 1st serve % | 64.8% | 66.5% |
| Break % | 46.7% | 42% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Diogo Morais
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09 | Pierre Antoine Tailleu M25 Setubal |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/09 | Robin Bertrand M25 Sintra |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 14/09 | Tomas Curras Abasolo M25 Sintra |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 09/09 | Max Houkes M25 Rabat · ~Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 03/09 | Arthur Nagel M25 Casablanca · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 02/09 | Yazid Lahjomri M25 Casablanca · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 01/09 | Romesh Kahatapitiya M25 Casablanca · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 19/08 | Izan Almazan Valiente M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 12/08 | Rocco Piatti M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 10/08 | Francisco Guimaraes M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Lucas Poullain
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09 | Clement Chidekh Challenger Rennes · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 14/09 | David Jorda Sanchis Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 07/09 | Moez Echargui Challenger Cassis · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/08 | Oliver Tarvet Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 21/08 | Lui Maxted Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/08 | Michael Geerts Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 19/08 | Viktor Durasovic Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/08 | Max Basing Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 09/08 | Ilia Simakin Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 08/08 | Gijs Brouwer Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Diogo Morais vs Lucas Poullain?
Our model gives 71% to Lucas Poullain, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.