Tennis · M25 Setubal · 22/09, 12:00
Prediction: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Giulio Perego
Team pages: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez · Giulio Perego
Prediction summary
Winner
Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
Giulio Perego
Estimated games
20.7
Recent form · 10 last
Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
4-6 (W-L)
Giulio Perego
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mario Gonzalez Fernandez 1488 · Giulio Perego 1440
| Mario Gonzalez Fernandez | Giulio Perego | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 73% | 27% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mario Gonzalez Fernandez (rating 1488 vs 1440).
Statistics
| Mario Gonzalez Fernandez | Giulio Perego | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (6) | 20% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.2 | 0.8-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.2-10.8 | 9.5-11.9 |
| Aces | 0.7 | 1.8 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 64.3% | 62.5% |
| Break % | 43% | 52.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Nikita Mashtakov Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 06/09 | Pavel Lagutin Challenger Seville · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 25/08 | Mitchell Krueger Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 24/08 | Matt Kuhar Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 23/08 | Calum Puttergill Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/08 | Roger Pascual Ferra Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 06/08 | Aryan Shah M25 Tauste · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 05/08 | Ander Tarrio Ponte M25 Tauste · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/07 | Keegan Smith Challenger Segovia · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Giulio Perego
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09 | Vasco Leote Prata M25 Sintra |
1-2 | 6-11 | L |
| 03/09 | Jake Fellows M15 Hurghada · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 02/09 | Aradhya Kshitij M15 Hurghada · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 24/08 | Fabrizio Andaloro Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 23/08 | Arvid Nordquist Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 16/08 | Filip Peliwo Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 05/08 | George Loffhagen M25 Roehampton · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 30/07 | Tiago Cacao M25 Aldershot |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 29/07 | James Beaven M25 Aldershot |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 18/07 | Orel Kimhi M25 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Giulio Perego?
Our model gives 66% to Mario Gonzalez Fernandez, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.