Tennis · M25 Setubal · 23/09, 11:00
Prediction: Finn Murgett vs Diogo Marques
Team pages: Finn Murgett · Diogo Marques
Prediction summary
Winner
Finn Murgett
Diogo Marques
Estimated games
21.6
Recent form · 10 last
Finn Murgett
6-4 (W-L)
Diogo Marques
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Finn Murgett
2–0
Diogo Marques
(2 last)
- 09 Sept2-1 18-9W
- 26 Jun2-1 17-13W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Finn Murgett 1582 · Diogo Marques 1483
| Finn Murgett | Diogo Marques | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 36% |
| Market | 72% | 28% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Finn Murgett (rating 1582 vs 1483).
- Finn Murgett is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Finn Murgett 2–0 Diogo Marques (2).
Statistics
| Finn Murgett | Diogo Marques | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | – | 50% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.6 | 1.3-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-8.1 | 11.7-12.8 |
| Aces | 1.4 | 4.8 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 1st serve % | 67.3% | 69.4% |
| Break % | 51.7% | 38.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6
H2H · Finn Murgett 2 – 0 Diogo Marques (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Finn Murgett 2–0 Diogo Marques
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09/26 M25 Sintra | 2-1 | 18-9 | W |
| 26/06/25 ITF M25 Elvas | 2-1 | 17-13 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Finn Murgett
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09 | Miguel Semedo M25 Setubal |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 17/09 | Robin Bertrand M25 Sintra |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 16/09 | Gian Luca Tanner M25 Sintra |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 14/09 | Valentin Vanta M25 Sintra |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/09 | Goncalo Marques M25 Sintra |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 10/09 | Ryan Colby M25 Sintra |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 09/09 | Diogo Marques M25 Sintra |
2-1 | 18-9 | W |
| 30/08 | Baltazar Wiger Nordas UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 29/08 | Rupert George UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 28/08 | Sil Hollemans UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
Diogo Marques
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09 | Pierre Antoine Tailleu M25 Sintra |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 09/09 | Finn Murgett M25 Sintra |
1-2 | 9-18 | L |
| 03/06 | Toufik Sahtali M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 27/05 | Nicolas Tepmahc M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 08/05 | Goncalo Marques M25 Loule · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 07/05 | Tomas Curras Abasolo M25 Loule · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 06/05 | Jose Freitas M25 Loule · ~Hard |
2-0 | 9-3 | W |
| 24/04 | Izan Almazan Valiente M15 Sanxenxo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 23/04 | Hugo Maia M15 Sanxenxo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 21/04 | Ivan Perez Martin M15 Sanxenxo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Finn Murgett vs Diogo Marques?
Our model gives 69% to Finn Murgett, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.