Tennis · W35 Santa Margherita · 23/09, 10:00
Prediction: Alisa Oktiabreva vs Sofia Shapatava
Team pages: Alisa Oktiabreva · Sofia Shapatava
Prediction summary
Winner
Alisa Oktiabreva
Sofia Shapatava
Estimated games
20
Recent form · 10 last
Alisa Oktiabreva
8-2 (W-L)
Sofia Shapatava
2-8 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alisa Oktiabreva 1609 · Sofia Shapatava 1504
| Alisa Oktiabreva | Sofia Shapatava | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 35% |
| Market | 94% | 6% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alisa Oktiabreva (rating 1609 vs 1504).
- Alisa Oktiabreva is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Alisa Oktiabreva | Sofia Shapatava | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 89% (9) | 0% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.5 | 1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.1-6.9 | 9.1-10.9 |
| Aces | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 62.4% | 56.1% |
| Break % | 56% | 42.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alisa Oktiabreva
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Marta Lombardini W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 19/09 | Franziska Sziedat W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 18/09 | Matilde Paoletti W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 17/09 | Laura Boehner W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 16/09 | Mia Horvit W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 20/07 | Oceane Dodin WTA Prague · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/04 | Yue Yuan WTA Oeiras · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 21/04 | Francesca Curmi WTA Oeiras · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 20/04 | Ayana Akli WTA Oeiras · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 19/04 | Elizara Yaneva WTA Oeiras Qual · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Sofia Shapatava
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09 | Laura Boehner W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 12/09 | Angelica Raggi W15 Viserba Di Rimini |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 10/09 | Chiara Fornasieri W15 Viserba Di Rimini |
2-1 | 13-14 | W |
| 09/09 | Alja Senica W15 Viserba Di Rimini |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 04/09 | Francesca Gandolfi W15 Fiano Romano |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 03/09 | Daniela Vismane W15 Fiano Romano |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/09 | Cecilia Manitto W15 Fiano Romano |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/08 | Laura Mair W35 Trieste |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 19/08 | Polina Leykina W35 Krakow |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 18/08 | Karolina Mrazikova W35 Krakow |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alisa Oktiabreva vs Sofia Shapatava?
Our model gives 81% to Alisa Oktiabreva, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.