Tennis · M25 Santa Margherita · 21/09, 11:30
Prediction: Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini vs Lorenzo Carboni
Team pages: Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini · Lorenzo Carboni
Prediction summary
Winner
Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini
Lorenzo Carboni
Estimated games
20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini
6-4 (W-L)
Lorenzo Carboni
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini 1541 · Lorenzo Carboni 1464
| Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini | Lorenzo Carboni | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 39% |
| Market | 21% | 79% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini (rating 1541 vs 1464).
- Note: Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini makes many double faults (6.3/match).
Statistics
| Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini | Lorenzo Carboni | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 67% (6) | 33% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.7 | 1.1-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-9.1 | 9.6-9.2 |
| Aces | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Double faults | 6.3 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 68.9% | 62.5% |
| Break % | 45.9% | 54% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09 | Alexander Weis M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 15/09 | Gabriele Crivellaro M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/09 | Mattias Pisanu M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 10/09 | Kirill Kivattsev M15 Budapest |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 09/09 | Vincent Dullinger M15 Budapest |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 08/09 | Marko Retelj M15 Budapest |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/09 | Lorenzo Berto M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 03/09 | Luca Castagnola M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 02/09 | Lorenzo Beraldo M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 26/08 | Jonas Gundacker M15 Vienna |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Lorenzo Carboni
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09 | Matteo Sciahbasi M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 06/09 | Gerard Campana Lee Challenger Seville · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/08 | Andrey Chepelev M25 Lausanne |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/08 | Noah Karma M25 Lausanne |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 27/08 | Nicolas Ulrich M25 Lausanne |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 25/08 | Arthur Bellegy M25 Lausanne |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 11/08 | Daniel Michalski Challenger Todi · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 10/08 | Maximilian Homberg Challenger Todi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 09/08 | Gabriele Maria Noce Challenger Todi · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 04/08 | Petr Brunclik Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini vs Lorenzo Carboni?
Our model gives 61% to Lorenzo Carboni, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.