Tennis · M25 Santa Margherita · 16/09, 10:00
Prediction: Gabriele Maria Noce vs Garrett Johns
Team pages: Gabriele Maria Noce · Garrett Johns
Prediction summary
Winner
Gabriele Maria Noce
Garrett Johns
Estimated games
22.2
Recent form · 10 last
Gabriele Maria Noce
6-4 (W-L)
Garrett Johns
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gabriele Maria Noce 1556 · Garrett Johns 1508
| Gabriele Maria Noce | Garrett Johns | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 22% | 78% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gabriele Maria Noce (rating 1556 vs 1508).
Statistics
| Gabriele Maria Noce | Garrett Johns | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 75% (4) | 100% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.8 | 1.2-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-10.1 | 11.3-11.8 |
| Aces | 1.3 | 2.8 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 64.1% | 71.2% |
| Break % | 39.9% | 40% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gabriele Maria Noce
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09 | Niccolo Ciavarella M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 11/09 | John Sperle M15 Budapest |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 10/09 | Heorhii Shylov M15 Budapest |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 09/09 | Pietro Marino M15 Budapest |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/09 | Manuel Mazza M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 03/09 | Alessandro Battiston M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 02/09 | Mirko Lagasio M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 22/08 | Thilo Behrmann M15 Mistelbach |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 21/08 | David Wallechner M15 Mistelbach |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/08 | Nicolo Toffanin M15 Mistelbach |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Garrett Johns
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09 | Lorenzo Rottoli M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 26/08 | Max Purcell Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 25/08 | Aidan Kim Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 19/08 | Pedro Martinez Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 17/08 | Timo Legout Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 16/08 | Guillaume Dalmasso Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 11/08 | Mees Rottgering Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/07 | Alan Magadan ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
1-2 | 8-14 | L |
| 22/07 | August Holmgren Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 20/07 | Enzo Aguiard Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gabriele Maria Noce vs Garrett Johns?
Our model gives 62% to Garrett Johns, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.