Tennis · M25 Santa Margherita · 16/09, 10:00
Prediction: Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini vs Alexander Weis
Team pages: Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini · Alexander Weis
Prediction summary
Winner
Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini
Alexander Weis
Estimated games
21.1
Recent form · 10 last
Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini
6-4 (W-L)
Alexander Weis
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini
0–1
Alexander Weis
(1 last)
- 29 Jan0-2 1-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini 1571 · Alexander Weis 1509
| Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini | Alexander Weis | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 17% | 83% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini (rating 1571 vs 1509).
- Head-to-head: Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini 0–1 Alexander Weis (1).
- Note: Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini makes many double faults (6.8/match).
Statistics
| Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini | Alexander Weis | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 80% (5) | 50% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.7 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.3-9.1 | 10.4-9.7 |
| Aces | 1.6 | 1 |
| Double faults | 6.8 | 1.7 |
| 1st serve % | 67% | 66.4% |
| Break % | 50.2% | 62.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.1
H2H · Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini 0 – 1 Alexander Weis (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini 0–1 Alexander Weis
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/01/25 M25 Antalya | 0-2 | 1-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09 | Gabriele Crivellaro M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/09 | Mattias Pisanu M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 10/09 | Kirill Kivattsev M15 Budapest |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 09/09 | Vincent Dullinger M15 Budapest |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 08/09 | Marko Retelj M15 Budapest |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/09 | Lorenzo Berto M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 03/09 | Luca Castagnola M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 02/09 | Lorenzo Beraldo M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 26/08 | Jonas Gundacker M15 Vienna |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 19/08 | Laurent Lokoli M25 Lesa |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Alexander Weis
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09 | Filippo Mazzola M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/09 | Federico Iannaccone Challenger Genoa · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 27/08 | Adrien Burdet M25 Lausanne |
0-2 | 2-10 | L |
| 26/08 | Oscar Blardone M25 Lausanne |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 23/08 | Pierluigi Basile M25 Lesa |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 22/08 | Giovanni Oradini M25 Lesa |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 22/08 | Kasra Rahmani M25 Lesa |
2-1 | 12-11 | W |
| 18/08 | Niccolo Catini M25 Lesa |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 11/08 | Lukas Neumayer Challenger Todi · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 10/08 | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano Challenger Todi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini vs Alexander Weis?
Our model gives 64% to Alexander Weis, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.