Tennis · W35 Santa Margherita · 16/09, 10:00
Prediction: Maria Toma vs Matilde Paoletti
Team pages: Maria Toma · Matilde Paoletti
Prediction summary
Winner
Maria Toma
Matilde Paoletti
Estimated games
21.9
Recent form · 10 last
Maria Toma
5-5 (W-L)
Matilde Paoletti
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Maria Toma
0–1
Matilde Paoletti
(1 last)
- 23 Oct0-2 5-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Maria Toma 1470 · Matilde Paoletti 1546
| Maria Toma | Matilde Paoletti | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 9% | 91% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Matilde Paoletti (rating 1470 vs 1546).
- Matilde Paoletti is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Maria Toma 0–1 Matilde Paoletti (1).
- Note: Maria Toma makes many double faults (5.4/match).
Statistics
| Maria Toma | Matilde Paoletti | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | – | 78% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.3 | 1.5-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.4-11.4 | 11.8-8.3 |
| Aces | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| Double faults | 5.4 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 60.8% | 59.4% |
| Break % | 49.5% | 63.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.9
H2H · Maria Toma 0 – 1 Matilde Paoletti (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Maria Toma 0–1 Matilde Paoletti
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10/24 W35 Santa Margherita | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Maria Toma
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Iveta Dapkute W50 Evora |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 31/08 | Rebecca Munk Mortensen W50 Leiria |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/08 | Amelia Rajecki W50 Leiria |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 25/08 | Alena Kovackova W50 Oldenzaal |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 24/08 | Sevil Yuldasheva W50 Oldenzaal |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 05/08 | Xinyu Gao W75 Ourense |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 03/08 | Esther Lopez Alcaraz W75 Ourense |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/08 | Aranai Martinez Quintana W75 Ourense |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 27/07 | Nagi Hanatani W75 Hechingen |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 22/07 | Neus Torner Sensano W50 Horb |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
Matilde Paoletti
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09 | Marianne Argyrokastriti W35 Reus · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 10/09 | Diletta Cherubini W35 Reus · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 08/09 | Sophie Greiner W35 Reus · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 26/08 | Gabriela Ce W35 Trieste |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 15/08 | Mia Ristic W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 14/08 | Rada Zolotareva W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 14-9 | W |
| 13/08 | Elena Milutinovic W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 12/08 | Despina Papamichail W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-10 | W |
| 10/08 | Kristina Novak W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 09/08 | Ekaterina Perelygina W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 7-2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Maria Toma vs Matilde Paoletti?
Our model gives 77% to Matilde Paoletti, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.