Tennis · M25 Santa Margherita · 15/09, 10:00
Prediction: Niccolo Ciavarella vs Gabriele Maria Noce
Team pages: Niccolo Ciavarella · Gabriele Maria Noce
Prediction summary
Winner
Niccolo Ciavarella
Gabriele Maria Noce
Estimated games
21.6
Recent form · 10 last
Niccolo Ciavarella
3-7 (W-L)
Gabriele Maria Noce
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Niccolo Ciavarella
0–1
Gabriele Maria Noce
(1 last)
- 17 Jul1-2 13-19L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Niccolo Ciavarella 1397 · Gabriele Maria Noce 1509
| Niccolo Ciavarella | Gabriele Maria Noce | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 66% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gabriele Maria Noce (rating 1397 vs 1509).
- Gabriele Maria Noce is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Niccolo Ciavarella 0–1 Gabriele Maria Noce (1).
Statistics
| Niccolo Ciavarella | Gabriele Maria Noce | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 10% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 0% (6) | 67% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.4-1.8 | 1.5-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 7.8-12.3 | 11.9-9.6 |
| Aces | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Double faults | 2 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 56.1% | 64% |
| Break % | 61.3% | 39.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6
H2H · Niccolo Ciavarella 0 – 1 Gabriele Maria Noce (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Niccolo Ciavarella 0–1 Gabriele Maria Noce
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07/25 M15 Gubbio | 1-2 | 13-19 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Niccolo Ciavarella
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Francesco Forti Challenger Genoa · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 30/08 | Andrey Chepelev Challenger Como · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Federico Arnaboldi M25 Fano |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 28/07 | Adrian Andreev M25 Bolzano · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 20/07 | Raffaele Ciurnelli M15 Segrate |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 16/07 | Maximilian Homberg M15 Gubbio |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Matteo Sciahbasi M15 Gubbio |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/07 | Ilya Snitari M15 Bucharest · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 28/06 | Georgii Kravchenko Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 23/06 | Federico Arnaboldi M15 Bergamo · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
Gabriele Maria Noce
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09 | John Sperle M15 Budapest |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 10/09 | Heorhii Shylov M15 Budapest |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 09/09 | Pietro Marino M15 Budapest |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/09 | Manuel Mazza M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 03/09 | Alessandro Battiston M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 02/09 | Mirko Lagasio M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 22/08 | Thilo Behrmann M15 Mistelbach |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 21/08 | David Wallechner M15 Mistelbach |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/08 | Nicolo Toffanin M15 Mistelbach |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 18/08 | Patrick Jozwicki M15 Mistelbach |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Niccolo Ciavarella vs Gabriele Maria Noce?
Our model gives 66% to Gabriele Maria Noce, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.