Tennis · Challenger Manacor · 04/09, 16:00
Prediction: Edas Butvilas vs Luca Potenza
Team pages: Edas Butvilas · Luca Potenza
Prediction summary
Winner
Edas Butvilas
Luca Potenza
Estimated games
23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Edas Butvilas
9-1 (W-L)
Luca Potenza
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Edas Butvilas
0–1
Luca Potenza
(1 last)
- 02 Oct0-2 5-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Edas Butvilas 1555 · Luca Potenza 1560
| Edas Butvilas | Luca Potenza | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 77% | 23% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Edas Butvilas dominates on serve: 6.8 aces and 54.2% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Edas Butvilas 0–1 Luca Potenza (1).
- Note: Luca Potenza makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Edas Butvilas | Luca Potenza | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 78% (9) | 80% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-1.1 | 1.4-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.7-12 | 12.7-11.5 |
| Aces | 6.8 | 3.3 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 4 |
| 1st serve % | 73.7% | 67.6% |
| Break % | 54.2% | 42% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.5
H2H · Edas Butvilas 0 – 1 Luca Potenza (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Edas Butvilas 0–1 Luca Potenza
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10/25 Challenger Villena | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Edas Butvilas
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09 | Remy Bertola Challenger Manacor · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 13/08 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 11/08 | Michael Mmoh Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 09/08 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 08/08 | Dusan Lajovic Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 07/08 | Rei Sakamoto Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 06/08 | Ozan Baris Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 04/08 | Tristan Boyer Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 25/07 | Mackenzie McDonald ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 18/07 | Clement Tabur ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
Luca Potenza
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09 | Joel Schwaerzler Challenger Manacor · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 02/09 | David Jorda Sanchis Challenger Manacor · Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 01/09 | Carl Emil Overbeck Challenger Manacor · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 31/08 | Daniel Masur Challenger Manacor · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 25/08 | Alec Deckers Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 05/08 | Aryan Shah M25 Tauste · ~Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 04/08 | Samuel Heredia M25 Tauste · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 06/07 | Pietro Orlando Fellin Challenger Trieste · Clay |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 05/07 | Lorenzo Angelini Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 28/06 | Matthew William Donald Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Edas Butvilas vs Luca Potenza?
Our model gives 64% to Edas Butvilas, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.