Tennis · M15 Madrid · 03/09, 10:00
Prediction: Ryan Nijboer vs Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento
Team pages: Ryan Nijboer · Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento
Prediction summary
Winner
Ryan Nijboer
Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento
Estimated games
21.1
Recent form · 10 last
Ryan Nijboer
4-6 (W-L)
Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ryan Nijboer 1517 · Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento 1502
| Ryan Nijboer | Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 88% | 12% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Ryan Nijboer | Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 57% (7) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1 | 1.1-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-10 | 9.8-8.8 |
| Aces | 3.7 | 0.3 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 1.5 |
| 1st serve % | 70.6% | 63% |
| Break % | 54.4% | 52.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ryan Nijboer
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09 | Mario Arce Fernandez M15 Madrid |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 26/08 | Carles Hernandez M25 Oviedo |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 24/08 | Tomas Curras Abasolo M25 Oviedo |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/08 | Tommaso Compagnucci Challenger Sion · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 18/08 | Murkel Dellien Challenger Sion · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 09/08 | Jannik Opitz Challenger Hamburg · Clay |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 17/07 | Guy Den Ouden Challenger Bunschoten · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 16/07 | Niels Visker Challenger Bunschoten · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 14/07 | Mika Brunold Challenger Bunschoten · Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 13/07 | Dimitar Kuzmanov Challenger Bunschoten · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | Jorge Lopez Dominguez M15 Madrid |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 24/08 | Jose Dominguez Alonso M25 Oviedo |
1-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 23/08 | Ian Luca Cervantes Tomas M25 Oviedo |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/08 | Jordi Garcia Mestre M25 Santander |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 30/07 | Carles Hernandez M15 Xativa |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 28/07 | Jose Dominguez Alonso M15 Xativa |
2-0 | 9-5 | W |
| 23/07 | Lorenzo Angelini M25 Denia |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 22/07 | Esteban Talavera Cortes M25 Denia |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/07 | Javier Barranco Cosano M25 Gandia |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 15/07 | Pablo Aunion M25 Gandia |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ryan Nijboer vs Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento?
Our model gives 72% to Ryan Nijboer, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.