Tennis · Challenger Plovdiv · 03/09, 09:00
Prediction: Valerio Aboian vs Sebastian Sorger
Team pages: Valerio Aboian · Sebastian Sorger
Prediction summary
Winner
Valerio Aboian
Sebastian Sorger
Estimated games
20.4
Recent form · 10 last
Valerio Aboian
4-6 (W-L)
Sebastian Sorger
10-0 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Valerio Aboian
1–0
Sebastian Sorger
(1 last)
- 11 Aug2-0 12-8W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Valerio Aboian 1466 · Sebastian Sorger 1603
| Valerio Aboian | Sebastian Sorger | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 69% |
| Market | 27% | 73% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sebastian Sorger (rating 1466 vs 1603).
- Sebastian Sorger is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Valerio Aboian 1–0 Sebastian Sorger (1).
Statistics
| Valerio Aboian | Sebastian Sorger | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 90% |
| Win % · Clay | 20% (5) | 100% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.2 | 1.9-0.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.7-11.4 | 12.1-4.5 |
| Aces | 5.2 | 1.6 |
| Double faults | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| 1st serve % | 70.5% | 73.8% |
| Break % | 34.9% | 67.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.4
H2H · Valerio Aboian 1 – 0 Sebastian Sorger (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Valerio Aboian 1–0 Sebastian Sorger
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08/23 ITF M25 Osijek | 2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Valerio Aboian
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08 | Filip Jeff Planinsek M25 Maribor |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 27/08 | Karlo Kajin M25 Maribor |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 21/08 | Filip Jeff Planinsek M25 Slovenj Gradec |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 20/08 | Nik Mikovic M25 Slovenj Gradec |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 18/08 | Aljaz Jeran M25 Slovenj Gradec |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 09/08 | Maximilian Homberg Challenger Todi · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 03/08 | Carlos Sanchez Jover Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 27/07 | Marko Topo Challenger Bonn · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 26/07 | Yannic Nittmann Challenger Bonn · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/07 | Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes Challenger Bogota · Clay |
1-2 | 17-20 | L |
Sebastian Sorger
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | Petr Brunclik Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 29/08 | Samuele Pieri M25 Maribor |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 28/08 | Giuseppe La Vela M25 Maribor |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 27/08 | Miha Vetrih M25 Maribor |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 26/08 | Jan Kupcic M25 Maribor |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 23/08 | Jonas Gundacker M25 Slovenj Gradec |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 22/08 | Sebastian Dominko M25 Slovenj Gradec |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 21/08 | Luca Castagnola M25 Slovenj Gradec |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 20/08 | Karlo Kajin M25 Slovenj Gradec |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 19/08 | Simone Agostini M25 Slovenj Gradec |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Valerio Aboian vs Sebastian Sorger?
Our model gives 71% to Sebastian Sorger, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.